The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) is a composite index that tracks the current state of the economy by combining four key indicators that move in tandem with the business cycle. These components include nonfarm payrolls, personal income, industrial production, and manufacturing and trade sales. It is used to identify the peaks and troughs of economic cycles in real-time. Unlike leading indicators, the coincident index tells us where the economy is right now.
The index is calculated by The Conference Board as a weighted average of four components: Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, Personal income less transfer payments, Industrial production, and Manufacturing and trade sales.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2023 | 100.47 | — | — |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 99.65 | — | — |
| Jan 31, 2023 | 121.86 | — | — |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 121.57 | — | — |
| Nov 30, 2022 | 122.77 | — | — |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 123.70 | — | — |
| Sep 30, 2022 | 123.68 | — | — |
| Aug 31, 2022 | 123.65 | — | — |
| Jul 27, 2022 | 128.74 | — | — |
| Jun 30, 2022 | 128.34 | — | — |
| May 31, 2022 | 128.81 | — | — |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 128.80 | — | — |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 129.10 | — | — |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 129.52 | — | — |
| Jan 31, 2022 | 129.20 | — | — |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 127.50 | — | — |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 127.30 | — | — |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 126.50 | — | — |
| Sep 30, 2021 | 125.70 | — | — |
