The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3.60 | 3.50 | +0.10 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | 3.19 | 3.00 | +0.19 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | 2.49 | 2.90 | -0.41 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 2.77 | 2.50 | +0.27 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | 2.53 | 2.40 | +0.13 |
| May 11, 2026 | 2.16 | 1.80 | +0.36 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 1.47 | 1.40 | +0.07 |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1.17 | 0.50 | +0.67 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 0.65 | 0.80 | -0.15 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 0.91 | 1.00 | -0.09 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1.14 | 1.20 | -0.06 |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 0.94 | 0.60 | +0.34 |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 0.36 | -0.10 | +0.46 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | -0.11 | 0.70 | -0.81 |
| Aug 14, 2025 | -0.14 | 0.40 | -0.54 |
| Jul 7, 2025 | -0.17 | 0.80 | -0.97 |
| Jun 6, 2025 | -0.21 | 0.10 | -0.31 |
| May 8, 2025 | -0.11 | 0.40 | -0.51 |
| Apr 15, 2025 | 0.14 | 0.30 | -0.16 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 0.06 | 0.40 | -0.34 |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 0.31 | 0.50 | -0.19 |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 0.29 | 0.50 | -0.21 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | -0.31 | 0.30 | -0.61 |
| Nov 11, 2024 | -0.07 | 0.80 | -0.87 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | 0.58 | 1.00 | -0.42 |
| Sep 9, 2024 | 1.17 | 1.90 | -0.73 |
| Aug 14, 2024 | 1.78 | 1.40 | +0.38 |
| Jul 10, 2024 | 1.48 | 1.50 | -0.02 |
| Jun 10, 2024 | 1.42 | 1.00 | +0.42 |
| May 8, 2024 | 1.14 | 0.84 | +0.30 |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 0.77 | 1.15 | -0.38 |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 0.80 | 1.10 | -0.30 |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 1.20 | 1.10 | +0.10 |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 1.23 | 2.00 | -0.77 |
| Dec 8, 2023 | 2.11 | 2.55 | -0.44 |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2.66 | 2.50 | +0.16 |
| Oct 6, 2023 | 3.02 | 3.40 | -0.38 |
| Aug 14, 2023 | 3.34 | 3.67 | -0.33 |
The latest reading is 2.1 standard deviations above the mean.