The reading has fallen in each of the last 3 releases.
The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | — | 3.20 | — |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 3.10 | 3.20 | -0.10 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.00 | +0.20 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.00 | +0.30 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 3.50 | 3.40 | +0.10 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 3.80 | 4.00 | -0.20 |
| May 20, 2026 | 4.10 | 4.00 | +0.10 |
| May 14, 2026 | 3.90 | 3.80 | +0.10 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 0.00 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | 3.50 | 3.40 | +0.10 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Mar 13, 2026 | 3.70 | 3.60 | +0.10 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 4.30 | 4.00 | +0.30 |
| Feb 16, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3.80 | 3.90 | -0.10 |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 3.70 | 3.50 | +0.20 |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 0.00 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 4.30 | 4.40 | -0.10 |
| Sep 16, 2025 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | 4.40 | 4.20 | +0.20 |
| Jul 15, 2025 | 4.30 | 4.40 | -0.10 |
| Jun 13, 2025 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 |
| May 14, 2025 | 3.70 | 3.80 | -0.10 |
| Apr 15, 2025 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3.80 | 3.70 | +0.10 |
| Feb 17, 2025 | 3.90 | 3.80 | +0.10 |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2.90 | 3.30 | -0.40 |
| Dec 13, 2024 | 3.20 | 3.10 | +0.10 |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 0.00 |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| Sep 13, 2024 | 2.80 | 2.90 | -0.10 |
| Aug 15, 2024 | 2.60 | 2.40 | +0.20 |
| Jul 15, 2024 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 0.00 |
| Jun 14, 2024 | 2.20 | 2.30 | -0.10 |
| May 14, 2024 | 2.10 | 2.20 | -0.10 |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2.30 | 2.20 | +0.10 |
| Mar 15, 2024 | 3.40 | 3.30 | +0.10 |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 0.00 |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 5.90 | 5.90 | 0.00 |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 6.20 | 6.30 | -0.10 |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 7.10 | 7.20 | -0.10 |
| Oct 13, 2023 | 8.20 | 8.10 | +0.10 |
| Sep 14, 2023 | 8.90 | 9.00 | -0.10 |
| Aug 14, 2023 | 9.70 | 9.70 | 0.00 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | 3.90 | 4.10 | +0.20 |
The latest reading is within its usual range, less than one standard deviation from the mean.
