The reading has risen in each of the last 3 releases.
Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | — | 4.00 | — |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 5.70 | 4.70 | +1.00 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 4.90 | 2.50 | +2.40 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 2.70 | 2.50 | +0.20 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 2.20 | 3.60 | -1.40 |
| May 28, 2026 | 3.30 | 3.70 | -0.40 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 6.30 | -2.20 | +8.50 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -2.70 | -2.00 | -0.70 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | -1.50 | 1.80 | -3.30 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2.40 | 1.20 | +1.20 |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1.00 | 2.30 | -1.30 |
| Nov 27, 2025 | 2.20 | 1.90 | +0.30 |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 0.40 | 2.10 | -1.70 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | 0.70 | 1.00 | -0.30 |
| Aug 28, 2025 | -0.70 | 1.70 | -2.40 |
| Jul 28, 2025 | 2.20 | 1.80 | +0.40 |
| Jun 27, 2025 | 1.60 | -0.50 | +2.10 |
| May 28, 2025 | 0.30 | -1.00 | +1.30 |
| Apr 29, 2025 | -0.30 | 2.50 | -2.80 |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 4.20 | 3.70 | +0.50 |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3.30 | -2.30 | +5.60 |
| Jan 28, 2025 | -3.10 | 1.50 | -4.60 |
| Nov 28, 2024 | -0.90 | -2.50 | +1.60 |
| Oct 28, 2024 | -3.00 | 1.30 | -4.30 |
| Sep 27, 2024 | 1.60 | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| Aug 28, 2024 | 2.40 | 0.20 | +2.20 |
| Jul 29, 2024 | -0.10 | 1.00 | -1.10 |
| Jun 27, 2024 | -1.00 | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| May 28, 2024 | -0.30 | 0.70 | -1.00 |
| Apr 26, 2024 | -0.40 | 1.50 | -1.90 |
| Mar 28, 2024 | -5.60 | 1.10 | -6.70 |
| Feb 28, 2024 | -2.10 | -20.00 | +17.90 |
| Jan 29, 2024 | -15.00 | -9.00 | -6.00 |
| Dec 28, 2023 | -11.10 | -13.00 | +1.90 |
| Nov 28, 2023 | -15.60 | -13.00 | -2.60 |
| Oct 27, 2023 | -17.00 | -18.20 | +1.20 |
| Sep 28, 2023 | -21.50 | -21.50 | 0.00 |
| Aug 29, 2023 | -16.30 | -16.30 | 0.00 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 5.20 | 4.90 | -0.30 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 2.10 | 2.70 | +0.60 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 1.80 | 2.20 | +0.40 |
| May 28, 2026 | 3.40 | 3.30 | -0.10 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 4.70 | 6.30 | +1.60 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | -3.50 | -2.70 | +0.80 |
The latest reading is 1.1 standard deviations above the mean.
