The monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) provides a high-frequency estimate of economic growth, measuring the change in output for a single month compared to the previous month. While quarterly data is more comprehensive, monthly GDP is crucial for identifying short-term economic trends and turning points in the business cycle. It is particularly significant in economies like the UK and Canada where it is a headline release. Investors use this data to anticipate quarterly performance and central bank policy shifts.
Estimated using a variety of monthly indicators including industrial production, services output, and construction activity. These components are weighted to reflect their contribution to the total economy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2024 | -2.60 | — | — |
| Aug 22, 2024 | 0.60 | 0.10 | +0.50 |
| May 16, 2024 | 0.60 | 0.40 | +0.20 |
| Apr 11, 2024 | -0.90 | 0.10 | -1.00 |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 0.50 | 0.30 | +0.20 |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1.20 | 0.50 | +0.70 |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 2.10 | 0.10 | +2.00 |
| Nov 23, 2023 | -2.30 | 0.00 | -2.30 |
| Oct 9, 2023 | -0.20 | 0.10 | -0.30 |
| Sep 12, 2023 | 0.30 | — | — |
