Measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level compared to the same month in the previous year. It is a primary indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. High readings suggest a robust economy and increased consumer confidence, often leading to inflationary pressure.
Calculated by surveying a broad sample of retail firms of various sizes and types across the country. The data is then weighted to represent the entire retail sector and adjusted for seasonal variations to ensure accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2024 | 0.60 | -0.30 | +0.90 |
| Mar 27, 2024 | -0.30 | -1.10 | +0.80 |
| Feb 29, 2024 | -1.20 | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| Jan 26, 2024 | -0.30 | -1.00 | +0.70 |
| Dec 27, 2023 | -1.50 | — | — |
| Nov 27, 2023 | -0.90 | -1.70 | +0.80 |
| Oct 27, 2023 | -2.50 | -3.80 | +1.30 |
| Sep 28, 2023 | -2.10 | — | — |
| Aug 28, 2023 | -1.40 | — | — |
| Jul 28, 2023 | -1.40 | — | — |
| Jun 28, 2023 | -2.20 | — | — |
| May 26, 2023 | -6.40 | — | — |
| Apr 27, 2023 | -5.30 | — | — |
| Mar 29, 2023 | -3.90 | — | — |
| Feb 27, 2023 | -6.10 | — | — |
| Jan 27, 2023 | -7.70 | — | — |
| Dec 27, 2022 | -3.60 | — | — |
| Nov 28, 2022 | -5.00 | — | — |
| Oct 28, 2022 | -3.80 | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2022 | -4.00 | — | — |
| Aug 26, 2022 | -9.00 | — | — |
| Jul 29, 2022 | -8.20 | — | — |
| Jun 27, 2022 | -8.80 | — | — |
| May 30, 2022 | -2.40 | — | — |
| Apr 29, 2022 | -0.90 | — | — |
| Mar 28, 2022 | -2.90 | — | — |
| Feb 28, 2022 | -1.60 | — | — |
| Jan 28, 2022 | -2.30 | — | — |
| Dec 27, 2021 | -4.40 | — | — |
| Nov 26, 2021 | -3.30 | — | — |
| Oct 28, 2021 | -2.80 | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2021 | -2.90 | — | — |
