The reading has fallen in each of the last 3 releases.
The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | 6.31 | 8.00 | -1.69 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 6.45 | 7.70 | -1.25 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 7.48 | 7.80 | -0.32 |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 7.51 | 7.40 | +0.11 |
| Jun 10, 2026 | 7.22 | 4.70 | +2.52 |
| May 8, 2026 | 4.41 | 3.70 | +0.71 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 3.04 | 3.50 | -0.46 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3.23 | 4.60 | -1.37 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 4.38 | 4.70 | -0.32 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 4.83 | 5.00 | -0.17 |
| Oct 10, 2025 | 4.93 | 4.80 | +0.13 |
| Sep 11, 2025 | 4.79 | 3.90 | +0.89 |
| Sep 10, 2025 | 4.79 | 3.90 | +0.89 |
| Aug 11, 2025 | 3.96 | 4.30 | -0.34 |
| Jul 9, 2025 | 4.15 | 4.00 | +0.15 |
| Jun 10, 2025 | 4.00 | 3.80 | +0.20 |
| May 8, 2025 | 3.99 | 4.90 | -0.91 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | 4.77 | 4.50 | +0.27 |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 4.74 | 4.60 | +0.14 |
| Feb 10, 2025 | 4.69 | 5.00 | -0.31 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 4.15 | 2.90 | +1.25 |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2.84 | 2.80 | +0.04 |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2.68 | 2.60 | +0.08 |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2.45 | 2.60 | -0.15 |
| Sep 11, 2024 | 2.75 | 2.80 | -0.05 |
| Aug 9, 2024 | 2.97 | 2.90 | +0.07 |
| Jul 11, 2024 | 3.04 | 3.40 | -0.36 |
| Jun 10, 2024 | 3.07 | 3.50 | -0.43 |
| May 10, 2024 | 3.30 | 2.80 | +0.50 |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3.00 | 4.20 | -1.20 |
| Mar 11, 2024 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 4.19 | 5.40 | -1.21 |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 5.30 | 5.50 | -0.20 |
| Dec 8, 2023 | 5.36 | 4.82 | +0.54 |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 4.75 | 4.30 | +0.45 |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 4.63 | 4.80 | -0.17 |
The latest reading is 1.5 standard deviations above the mean.
