The reading has fallen in each of the last 4 releases.
The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | — | 21.40 | — |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 20.00 | 20.50 | -0.50 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20.80 | 20.40 | +0.40 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 21.10 | 23.00 | -1.90 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 23.40 | 24.70 | -1.30 |
| May 20, 2026 | 24.30 | 23.40 | +0.90 |
| Apr 17, 2026 | 23.80 | 23.60 | +0.20 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 24.10 | — | — |
| Feb 17, 2026 | 24.90 | 24.70 | +0.20 |
| Feb 14, 2026 | 24.90 | — | — |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 26.00 | 26.20 | -0.20 |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 27.90 | 29.30 | -1.40 |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 29.10 | 28.50 | +0.60 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 28.70 | 28.40 | +0.30 |
| Sep 22, 2025 | 28.20 | 27.50 | +0.70 |
| Aug 22, 2025 | 27.30 | 26.50 | +0.80 |
| Jul 15, 2025 | 27.10 | 26.60 | +0.50 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | 27.70 | 29.10 | -1.40 |
| May 16, 2025 | 29.20 | 30.80 | -1.60 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | 30.50 | 28.40 | +2.10 |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 30.70 | 28.20 | +2.50 |
| Feb 17, 2025 | 28.50 | 28.50 | 0.00 |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 28.10 | 28.00 | +0.10 |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 27.00 | 33.00 | -6.00 |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 32.40 | 35.00 | -2.60 |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 34.30 | 33.80 | +0.50 |
| Sep 16, 2024 | 33.90 | 34.00 | -0.10 |
| Aug 19, 2024 | 33.70 | 34.00 | -0.30 |
| Jul 16, 2024 | 33.30 | 33.00 | +0.30 |
| Jun 24, 2024 | 32.70 | 33.00 | -0.30 |
| May 20, 2024 | 32.30 | 32.20 | +0.10 |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 31.80 | 35.00 | -3.20 |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 33.50 | 36.00 | -2.50 |
| Feb 16, 2024 | 35.00 | 36.30 | -1.30 |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 34.50 | 35.00 | -0.50 |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 33.10 | 26.50 | +6.60 |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 26.90 | 28.00 | -1.10 |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 27.80 | 26.70 | +1.10 |
The latest reading is 2.1 standard deviations below the mean.
