The announcement by a central bank regarding the short-term interest rate at which it lends to commercial banks. This is the primary tool of monetary policy used to control inflation and stabilize the national economy. Changes in interest rates influence borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, affecting overall spending and investment levels.
Determined by the central bank's governing board after reviewing comprehensive economic data, including inflation trends, GDP growth, and employment figures. The decision is based on the bank's mandate to maintain price stability and support economic growth.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | — | 4.50 | — |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 4.25 | 4.50 | -0.25 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 4.25 | 4.00 | +0.25 |
| May 5, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Feb 10, 2026 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Dec 24, 2025 | 4.00 | 5.35 | -1.35 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 5.35 | 5.35 | 0.00 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | 5.35 | 5.35 | 0.00 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 5.35 | 5.35 | 0.00 |
| Jun 11, 2025 | 5.35 | 5.35 | 0.00 |
| Apr 22, 2025 | 5.35 | 5.10 | +0.25 |
| Mar 12, 2025 | 5.35 | 5.05 | +0.30 |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 5.35 | 5.30 | +0.05 |
| Feb 5, 2025 | 5.35 | 5.30 | +0.05 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | 5.55 | 5.55 | 0.00 |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 5.80 | 6.05 | -0.25 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 6.05 | 6.30 | -0.25 |
| Jul 24, 2024 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 0.00 |
| Jun 12, 2024 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 0.00 |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 0.00 |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 0.00 |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 0.00 |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 6.30 | 6.30 | 0.00 |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 6.30 | 6.50 | -0.20 |
The latest reading is 1.2 standard deviations below the mean.