The Year-over-Year Inflation Rate measures the percentage change in the price of a basket of goods and services compared to the same month in the previous year. It is the primary gauge of purchasing power and is used by central banks to determine monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. High inflation often leads to tighter monetary policy, while low inflation may prompt stimulus measures.
It is calculated by comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI value from one year ago. The formula used is ((Current CPI - Past CPI) / Past CPI) x 100.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | 2.70 | 2.90 | -0.20 |
| Sep 7, 2026 | 2.60 | 2.50 | +0.10 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 2.30 | 2.70 | -0.40 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 3.40 | 4.60 | -1.20 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | 4.80 | 5.90 | -1.10 |
| May 7, 2026 | 5.70 | 5.30 | +0.40 |
| Apr 7, 2026 | 4.90 | 5.00 | -0.10 |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 2.90 | 3.00 | -0.10 |
| Feb 13, 2026 | 3.20 | 4.90 | -1.70 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 4.10 | 3.80 | +0.30 |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 4.00 | 4.40 | -0.40 |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 4.50 | 4.10 | +0.40 |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Sep 9, 2025 | 4.40 | 5.00 | -0.60 |
| Aug 7, 2025 | 4.80 | 4.50 | +0.30 |
| Jul 7, 2025 | 4.50 | 3.50 | +1.00 |
| Jun 9, 2025 | 3.30 | 2.20 | +1.10 |
| May 7, 2025 | 2.60 | 2.50 | +0.10 |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 2.70 | 3.00 | -0.30 |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 5.00 | 4.70 | +0.30 |
| Feb 14, 2025 | 4.90 | 4.70 | +0.20 |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 0.00 |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 4.30 | 3.30 | +1.00 |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | 2.60 | 3.00 | -0.40 |
| Sep 10, 2024 | 2.20 | 3.10 | -0.90 |
| Aug 7, 2024 | 3.00 | 2.40 | +0.60 |
| Jul 8, 2024 | 3.20 | 4.30 | -1.10 |
| Jun 7, 2024 | 4.50 | 4.10 | +0.40 |
| May 7, 2024 | 4.00 | 3.30 | +0.70 |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 4.00 | 2.80 | +1.20 |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3.00 | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 3.20 | 3.80 | -0.60 |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 3.60 | 3.10 | +0.50 |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3.10 | 3.00 | +0.10 |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3.50 | 6.30 | -2.80 |
| Oct 9, 2023 | 6.60 | 7.80 | -1.20 |
The latest reading is 1.1 standard deviations below the mean.