The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. It combines ten different economic components, including manufacturing hours, jobless claims, and building permits, to provide a forward-looking view of the economy. A rising LEI suggests economic expansion, while a declining trend often precedes a recession. It is widely used by investors to anticipate shifts in the broader economic landscape several months in advance.
The index is calculated as a weighted average of 10 leading components, such as average weekly hours in manufacturing, consumer expectations, and the interest rate spread. Each component is adjusted for volatility to ensure a balanced representation of economic momentum.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | — | 116.80 | — |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 116.50 | 116.40 | +0.10 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 116.40 | 116.50 | -0.10 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 116.50 | 116.80 | -0.30 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 116.80 | 116.90 | -0.10 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 116.10 | 115.90 | +0.20 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 115.90 | 114.30 | +1.60 |
| May 26, 2026 | 114.00 | 114.50 | -0.50 |
| May 12, 2026 | 114.50 | 114.60 | -0.10 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 113.20 | 112.40 | +0.80 |
| Apr 7, 2026 | 112.40 | 112.30 | +0.10 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | 112.10 | 112.40 | -0.30 |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 112.40 | 113.20 | -0.80 |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 111.00 | 110.20 | +0.80 |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 110.20 | 110.30 | -0.10 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 109.90 | 110.50 | -0.60 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 110.50 | 110.40 | +0.10 |
| Dec 24, 2025 | 109.80 | 110.00 | -0.20 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 110.00 | 109.30 | +0.70 |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 108.60 | 108.00 | +0.60 |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 108.00 | 107.90 | +0.10 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | 107.00 | 107.40 | -0.40 |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 107.40 | 107.10 | +0.30 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | 106.10 | 105.90 | +0.20 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | 105.90 | 105.90 | 0.00 |
| Aug 25, 2025 | 105.60 | 106.10 | -0.50 |
| Aug 7, 2025 | 106.10 | 106.20 | -0.10 |
| Jul 25, 2025 | 104.80 | 105.30 | -0.50 |
| Jul 7, 2025 | 105.30 | 105.30 | 0.00 |
| Jun 25, 2025 | 104.20 | 103.40 | +0.80 |
| Jun 6, 2025 | 103.40 | 104.10 | -0.70 |
| May 26, 2025 | 108.10 | 107.70 | +0.40 |
| May 9, 2025 | 107.70 | 107.50 | +0.20 |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 107.90 | 107.90 | 0.00 |
| Apr 7, 2025 | 107.90 | 107.80 | +0.10 |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 108.30 | 108.00 | +0.30 |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 108.00 | 108.40 | -0.40 |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 108.30 | 108.90 | -0.60 |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 108.90 | 108.10 | +0.80 |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 107.50 | 107.00 | +0.50 |
| Jan 10, 2025 | 107.00 | 107.20 | -0.20 |
| Dec 25, 2024 | 109.10 | 108.60 | +0.50 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 108.60 | 108.90 | -0.30 |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 109.10 | 109.40 | -0.30 |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 109.40 | 108.90 | +0.50 |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 106.90 | 106.70 | +0.20 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | 106.70 | 107.40 | -0.70 |
| Sep 27, 2024 | 109.30 | 109.50 | -0.20 |
| Sep 6, 2024 | 109.50 | 109.40 | +0.10 |
| Aug 28, 2024 | 109.00 | 108.60 | +0.40 |
| Aug 7, 2024 | 108.60 | 109.30 | -0.70 |
| Date | First print | Current | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | 116.5 | 116.5 | 0 ↓ |
| May 26, 2026 | 114 | 114 | 0 ↓ |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 113.3 | 113.2 | -0.10 ↓ |
