S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash

What is au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI?

The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI, a Purchasing Managers' Index compiled by S&P Global, gives the earliest read on factory conditions in Japan. It is sponsored by au Jibun Bank and surveys purchasing managers at about 400 manufacturers. The panel is stratified by detailed sector and workforce size by share of GDP, and data collection began in October 2001.

Replies cite higher, unchanged or lower activity than the prior month and feed a 0 to 100 diffusion index of breadth of change. It tracks breadth of change only, not output volumes or yen values, and covers manufacturing alone, not services or the whole economy.

When is it released and what happens each release?

Survey replies are collected in the second half of each reference month, with the flash using about 85% to 90% of total replies. The flash appears monthly in the 3rd or 4th week, about 1 week before the final manufacturing and services indices. Release time is 09:30 JST, or 00:30 UTC, on a publisher-set date that shifts with public holidays. 1 flash document carries manufacturing, services and the composite, a combined output gauge, and published finals stay unrevised except seasonal factor updates.

What moves au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI?

The headline, or main index, blends 5 survey gauges with published weights.

• New Orders, 30%: direction of change in incoming factory orders.
• Output, 25%: direction of change in production volumes.
• Employment, 20%: direction of change in staffing levels.
• Suppliers' Delivery Times, 15%: speed of supply chains, inverted so shorter waits score higher.
• Stocks of Purchases, 10%: direction of change in input inventories.

The flash of May 23, 2023 showed a near-record composite of 54.9 alongside a manufacturing PMI of only 50.8, up from 49.5. Services hit 56.3, a series high on revived tourism, while factory output reached 51.9 after 47.9. The factory headline marked a first broad improvement since October 2022 as output and orders returned to growth.

Delivery times shortened for the first time since January 2020, while price pressure stayed strong and employment rose at a solid pace. The lesson is that a strong composite can rest on services while manufacturing only stabilizes above 50.0.

How is au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI calculated?

1. Collect replies: For each gauge, record the share answering higher, unchanged or lower than the prior month.

1. Diffusion index: Add the higher share plus 0.5 times the unchanged share, giving a 0 to 100 score. For example, 35% higher and 45% unchanged gives 57.5.

1. Invert delivery times: Flip the delivery-times score so faster delivery reads as improvement; a raw 52.5 becomes 47.5 after inversion.

1. Weighted average: Combine the 5 scores as 0.30 orders plus 0.25 output plus 0.20 employment plus 0.15 delivery times plus 0.10 stocks. With scores of 57.5, 55.0, 50.0, 47.5 and 52.5 the result is about 53.4, above 50.0.

1. Seasonally adjust: Remove normal seasonal swings and publish the flash on 85% to 90% of replies.

Key point: The PMI tracks breadth of monthly change, not output size. A reading of 50.8 does not mean growth of 50.8%, and the headline manufacturing PMI is not comparable with output and composite gauges. The flash is only an early estimate, not a final reading.