S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

What is au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI?

The au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI tracks Japanese factory conditions through purchasing managers (factory buyers tracking orders and production). It belongs to a survey program covering over 40 countries, compiled monthly by S&P Global from around 400 manufacturers and sponsored by au Jibun Bank. Data collection began in October 2001, and the series was previously known as the Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI.

The panel is split by industry and workforce size based on GDP share, with each reply showing direction versus the prior month. Replies form diffusion indexes (survey gauges from 0 to 100) with 50 as no change, not a count of output volumes.

When is it released and what happens each release?

Responses are collected in the second half of each month, with the flash estimate (a partial early release) using about 85% to 90% of replies. Its flash release for manufacturing, services and composite (combined factory-plus-services output) is embargoed until 09:30 JST, or 00:30 UTC.

It lands about a week before the manufacturing final, due on the first business day after the reference month at the same time. Each release packs key findings, charts, economist comment and a sub-index table with method notes. Underlying survey answers are not revised after publication, though seasonal adjustment factors (corrections for normal seasonal swings) can revise the adjusted series.

What moves au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI?

The headline (combined index) moves with 5 weighted gauges, plus context from unweighted price and expectation gauges.

• New Orders, 30%: Captures incoming demand and order-book volumes, the main demand signal.
• Output, 25%: Captures production volumes in the month.
• Employment, 20%: Captures staffing levels and job creation.
• Suppliers' Delivery Times, 15%: Captures supply-chain tightness, inverted so slower deliveries add positively.
• Stocks of Purchases, 10%: Captures accumulation of stored input materials.
• Other gauges: Cover export orders, backlogs, inventories, purchases, prices and 12-month expectations.

The final released October 3, 2022 fell to 50.8 from 51.5 in August, weakest since January 2021 yet still above 50. New orders fell at the sharpest pace in two years, while output fell for a third straight month at the fastest pace in a year. Jobs still grew at a 7-month high, yet input costs neared record highs and selling prices rose steeply. Orders fell far faster than output, pointing to more production weakness, with unsold stocks building on poor sales, so 50.8 was not healthy.

How is au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI calculated?

1. Diffusion index: For each gauge, add the share reporting higher to 0.5 times the share reporting no change.
2. Scale: Each index runs 0 to 100, with above 50 showing growth versus the prior month. Below 50 shows decline.
3. Seasonal adjustment: Indexes are adjusted for normal seasonal swings.
4. Inversion: Invert Suppliers' Delivery Times so slower deliveries move with the other gauges.
5. Headline: Blend 0.30 New Orders plus 0.25 Output plus 0.20 Employment plus 0.15 inverted Delivery Times plus 0.10 Stocks of Purchases. As an illustration only, 52.0, 51.0, 50.0, 48.0 and 49.0 in the same order give 50.45, about 50.5, a slight improvement.

Key point: Above 50 means only that more firms improved than worsened since the prior month, not strong output. It is also not comparable with output, services or composite gauges.