BoE MPC Vote Unchanged

What is MPC Vote Unchanged?

The MPC Vote Unchanged is the count of votes to maintain Bank Rate at its existing level. Bank Rate is the interest rate set by the Bank of England, the United Kingdom central bank, through its 9 member Monetary Policy Committee. The Committee sets rates to meet the 2% inflation target.

The 9 voters are the Governor, 3 deputies, the Chief Economist and 4 externals, while a Treasury official may speak but cannot vote. The count records 9 named votes with equal weight, so it is a decision record, not a poll of forecasts.

When is it released and what happens each release?

The Committee holds 8 scheduled decision meetings per year on dates announced in advance. The decision summary and full minutes appear together at 12pm London time, normally on the date announced for publication after each meeting ends. Each release names every voter and each dissenter preferred move in basis points. Votes are final and never revised, and 4 times per year a Monetary Policy Report with forecasts appears alongside the decision.

What moves MPC Vote Unchanged?

The count reflects how each of the 9 voters balances inflation pressure against growth and jobs.

• Votes to maintain: back the existing rate when most voters judge the stance fits the 2% target.
• Votes for a 0.25pp increase: hawkish dissent, meaning votes warning that price pressure needs tighter policy with higher rates.
• Votes for a 0.25pp decrease: dovish dissent, meaning votes seeking lower rates to support demand and jobs.
• Dissent in 2 directions: dissent pointing higher and lower at 1 meeting, which signals wide disagreement about price pressure.
• Chair rules: the Chair sets the motion, all members present vote, and ties fall to the chair casting vote.
• Quorum: 6 must attend, including the Governor or Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy.

In the meeting ending January 31, 2024, published February 1, 2024, the Committee voted 6 to 3 to maintain Bank Rate at 5.25%. 2 members preferred a 0.25pp increase to 5.5%, while 1 member preferred a 0.25pp cut to 5%. The 6 hold votes therefore hid a divided panel, with hawks and a dove voting against each other. That is why the names and preferred moves matter more than the headline count alone.

How is MPC Vote Unchanged calculated?

1. Proposition: the Chair puts forward the motion, for example that Bank Rate should stay at 5%.
2. Voting: every member present votes for or against with equal weight, and each vote against records the dissenter preferred rate move.
3. Majority rule: the hold passes when votes for exceed votes against, so with 9 present at least 5 must back it. A tie falls to the chair casting vote.
4. No adjustment: there is no weighting or seasonal smoothing, since the result is a straight count of 9 votes. For example, 8 votes to hold at 5% against 1 for a 0.25pp cut to 4.75% prints as 8 to 1.

Key point: an 8 to 1 hold is not unanimous agreement, since the dissenter named a 0.25pp cut and each meeting decides policy anew.