S&P Global Services PMI Flash

What is S&P Global Flash UK Services PMI?

The S&P Global Flash UK Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is the early read on UK services. It covers about 650 services firms across consumer services excluding retail, transport, information, communication, finance, insurance, real estate and business services. The headline is a diffusion index (a 0 to 100 score from higher, same and lower shares) based on a single activity question. It is not a weighted mix or GDP measure; the flash uses around 80% to 90% of replies, about a week before final data.

When is it released and what happens each release?

Replies are collected in the second half of each reference month and ask about change from the prior month. It appears around the 22 to 24 of the reference month under embargo until 09:30 London time, with composite and manufacturing flashes, commentary and charts. Manufacturing data follow on the 1st working day of the next month, with final services and composite on the 3rd working day, after holiday shifts. Responses are never revised but seasonal factors can be; markets read the level against 50.0 (the neutral mark) and its move and distance from 50.0.

What moves S&P Global Flash UK Services PMI?

The headline has no weighted parts; these separate services indices give context around it.

• Business Activity: headline index from the single question on change in volume of business activity.
• New Business: separate index for change in incoming new work.
• New Export Business: separate index for change in new work from abroad.
• Outstanding Business: separate index for change in backlogs of unfinished work.
• Employment: separate index for change in staffing levels.
• Prices and Future Activity: separate indices for operating costs, selling prices and expected activity over the year ahead.

The 22 November 2024 flash put services at 50.0 after 52.0 in the prior month, stagnation on the neutral line and a 13-month low. Composite was 49.9 after 51.8, also a 13-month low and in contraction. Manufacturing output was 49.3 after 50.3 and manufacturing PMI 48.6 after 49.9, while consensus had expected about 52.0 for services. The 50.0 flash was reported as 50.8 in final data, showing how a flash near 50.0 can change at the final release.

How is S&P Global Flash UK Services PMI calculated?

1. Replies: Panel firms report whether each variable rose, stayed the same or fell from the prior month; shares are counted for each variable.
2. Diffusion index: The index equals the share reporting higher plus 0.5 of the share reporting unchanged, on a 0 to 100 scale. For example, 30% higher and 45% unchanged gives 30 + 0.5 x 45 = 30 + 22.5 = 52.5, above 50.0 and thus expansion.
3. Seasonal adjustment: Indices are seasonally adjusted to remove regular seasonal moves.
4. Services headline: It is the Business Activity diffusion index alone, with no further weighting.
5. Composite: It is a weighted mean of Manufacturing Output (factory output) and Services Business Activity using official annual value-added (GDP) shares. For example, 0.15 x 49.0 + 0.85 x 52.5 = 7.35 + 44.625 = 51.975, reported as 52.0.

Key point: Flash is not final data; the services headline is a single diffusion index from a single activity question, not a weighted mix.