S&P Global Services PMI

What is S&P Global UK Services PMI?

The S&P Global UK Services PMI, or Purchasing Managers' Index (a monthly business survey), measures monthly direction of UK services business activity. It is published by S&P Global Market Intelligence as part of PMI by S&P Global. It covers around 650 service firms across transport, information, communication, finance, insurance, real estate and business services. The panel is stratified by sector and workforce size by share of GDP.

It excludes retail, manufacturing and construction output. Each firm says whether activity rose, held steady or fell versus the prior month. The result is a diffusion index (a 0 to 100 score from reply shares), with above 50 as growth and below 50 as decline.

When is it released and what happens each release?

Responses are collected in the second half of each reference month and record change versus the prior month. Flash uses 80% to 90% of replies and appears before month-end at 09:30 London time. Manufacturing final precedes services and composite early next month at 09:30. Holidays can shift dates.

Each release adds composite output (a GDP-weighted services and manufacturing average), orders, exports, expectations, jobs, backlogs, prices and commentary. Underlying replies are never revised, but seasonal adjustment (smoothing for calendar patterns) can revise the series. Above 50 means growth and below 50 means decline.

What moves S&P Global UK Services PMI?

The headline comes from a single activity question, so other indices explain what sits behind it.

• Business Activity: change in company activity volume versus the prior month; the headline itself.
• New Business and New Export Business: change in total new orders and in new orders from abroad versus the prior month.
• Future Activity: expected business activity over the next 12 months, a gauge of optimism; above 50 means expected growth.
• Employment and Outstanding Business: change in staffing numbers and in backlogs of uncompleted work, a sign of pressure on capacity.
• Input Prices and Prices Charged: change in average costs and in prices charged to clients, showing pass-through and margins.
• Composite Output Index: a GDP-weighted average of manufacturing output and services activity.

Because the headline comes from one question, readers check the other indices with it, never alone.

How is S&P Global UK Services PMI calculated?

1. Collect replies: questionnaires go out in the second half of the month, with each firm reporting higher, unchanged or lower activity versus the prior month.
2. Build diffusion index: for each question, the index equals the share reporting higher plus half the share reporting unchanged, ranging from 0 to 100.
3. Seasonally adjust: each index is adjusted to remove regular calendar effects, though adjustment factors can later revise the published series.
4. Define headline: the Services PMI is the business-activity diffusion index alone, not a weighted mix. For example, if 100 firms answer and 30% report higher, 50% unchanged and 20% lower, the index is 30 plus half of 50, or 55.0. After illustrative seasonal adjustment to 54.6, the 54.6 reading sits above 50 and signals higher activity than the prior month.

Key point: the headline is not total services output, GDP or a multi-part average. It only shows whether activity rose or fell versus the prior month.