The Monetary Policy Report (MPR), under its former name Inflation Report, is the Bank quarterly forecast report for prices and growth. It sets out the analysis and projections that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the Bank panel that sets rates, uses for decisions. The Bank of England writes and publishes it for the MPC forecast round. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) supplies price data, but it does not publish this report.
It covers the whole United Kingdom economy, with domestic and world developments plus forecasts for growth and inflation. Inputs named by the publisher include agency data and Bank calculations, regional agent reports, business surveys, market prices and a poll of outside forecasters. This is not a survey, so it has no sample size and no panel of respondents.
It appears quarterly on the MPC announcement day of a Report month, with the rate decision and the MPC Summary and minutes. The Governor and the policy deputy hold a press conference at each release. Chart slides and data downloads sit beside the text, with an agents summary of business conditions and conference remarks. Published editions stay fixed, and tables print comparison figures in parentheses.
Markets treat the projections as the basis for rate moves, watching pay growth and services inflation for persistent pressure. Policy language keys off the forecast, with action tied to signs of embedded persistence.
The Report tracks 3 target variables on market and cost assumptions, checked against outside forecasters.
In a past edition used as an example, the MPC voted 6-3 to lift Bank Rate by 0.25 points to 5.25%. 2 members backed 5.5% and 1 backed 5%. Price growth had eased to 7.9% in the single-month read and 8.4% across the quarter, seen near 5% by year end. The path assumed market rates peaking above 6% and averaging near 5.5%.
The modal path then reached 2% before slipping below target, while upside risk left the mean at 2.0% and 1.9%. Pay growth stood at 7.7% with services prices firm. A past peak hit 11.1%, and readings had left an older fan, a miss seen 10% of the time.
The full modal run read 6.9 to 2.8 to 1.7 to 1.5. The mean run read 6.9 to 3.1 to 2.0 to 1.9 with a 0.3 gap at the 2-year mark.
Key point: The Report projects inflation and does not fix price readings, which ONS measures from 180000 prices of about 700 items. The Government sets a 2% price target that holds at all times, with a formal letter if inflation tops 3% or drops below 1%.
No historical data available
