Gross Domestic Product QoQ

Gross domestic product (GDP), the total value of goods and services produced by UK residents, measures domestic economic activity. This release is the quarterly national accounts (QNA), the second quarterly estimate for each calendar quarter. It uses fuller survey and administrative data, such as VAT turnover, to refine the first estimate.

Headline growth is quarter on quarter (QoQ) change in real chained volume, meaning inflation excluded, on a seasonally adjusted basis, meaning calendar effects removed. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes it as accredited official statistics for the whole United Kingdom.

Each release covers one calendar quarter, with source data collected through and after the quarter. Publication follows about 12 to 13 weeks after quarter end at 7am UK time, on dates the Office for National Statistics (ONS) preannounces. The same release adds sector accounts, meaning income and saving by sector, and trade and GDP tables, with all periods open for revision.

Revisions replace forecasts with tax data and late surveys, plus new seasonal factors and a full balancing review. Between first estimate and this release, revisions are typically small, around 0.1 to 0.2 points, up or down broadly equally. Markets read quarter on quarter real growth as expansion when positive and contraction when negative.

Growth reflects output, spending and income together, with services usually deciding the result. Large offsetting moves can hide inside the total, so the breakdown shows where growth came from.

• Services: largest output driver, covering 14 subsectors including retail, transport and professional work, split into consumer facing and business facing activity.
• Production: manufacturing, mining, energy and waste output, often volatile and subject to revision.
• Spending: household and government consumption plus investment in lasting assets, with inventories carrying balancing plugs that are not activity.
• Net trade and income: exports minus imports, where gold swings offset so GDP stays neutral, plus wages, company surplus and taxes less subsidies.

In one published quarterly release, real GDP grew 0.5%, revised down from 0.6%, while year on year growth was 0.7%. Services rose 0.6% and offset a 0.3% fall in production and a 0.2% fall in construction. A 9.6 billion pound swing in valuables, mainly non monetary gold, offset through net trade so GDP stayed neutral.

Business investment was revised up from a fall of 0.1% to growth of 1.4%, while nominal GDP, meaning current prices, rose 1.1%. The revision shows fuller data replacing early forecasts, not a change in the economy.

1. Collect three views: build output, meaning gross value added (GVA) by industry, plus spending and income separately from surveys and tax records. Totals follow GDP equals output plus taxes less subsidies.

1. Remove inflation: divide current price values by price indices, then chain link with yearly weights to give real chained volume GDP. Output uses double deflation, meaning output and inputs deflated separately.

1. Adjust seasonality: remove calendar and seasonal effects to give seasonally adjusted growth, with raw data kept elsewhere. This leaves trend plus irregular moves for the headline rate.

1. Balance approaches: let output lead in the two newest quarters and align spending and income to it, then average three for older quarters. Gaps remain as alignment adjustments with a target of within 3 billion pounds, meaning accounting plugs, not activity.

1. Compute growth: divide the change in real seasonally adjusted GDP by the prior quarter and multiply by 100. For older quarters the headline is the average of the three unrounded rates.