The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. It combines ten different economic components, such as jobless claims, building permits, and stock prices, into a single predictive tool. By aggregating these diverse data points, the index helps investors and policymakers identify potential recessions or recoveries months in advance. It is one of the most respected forecasting tools for the US economy.
The index is calculated as a weighted average of 10 leading economic indicators that have historically shown a tendency to precede changes in the overall economy. The components are adjusted periodically to maintain their predictive accuracy.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2015 | -0.30 | — | — |
| Aug 11, 2015 | -0.20 | — | — |
