ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

What is ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters?

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, or SPF, is the European Central Bank's quarterly expectations survey for the euro area as a whole. Its panel covers economists at financial and non financial institutions, including research bodies in Europe, averaging about 55 responses per round from an initial 83. It tracks HICP inflation, underlying inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment, and it carries no index weights. It records expectations only, never outcomes, household views, ECB staff projections or policymaker views.

When is it released and what happens each release?

Questionnaires go out in the opening month of each quarter, after Eurostat publishes the HICP reference reading for the round. Fieldwork falls in the second half of that month and lasts only a few days. Results appear a few weeks after fieldwork as a web report plus press release dated by day with no fixed time. Each release holds revisions with tables, charts, distributions and anonymised microdata, is never revised, and markets read longer term inflation against the 2% target.

What moves ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters?

Four expectation variables plus reported assumptions drive the story, since the survey has no index weights.

• HICP inflation: Headline consumer price outlook as calendar year averages, rolling spans and longer term.
• HICP inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco: Underlying price outlook on the same horizons.
• Real GDP growth: Expected activity growth on the same horizons.
• Unemployment rate: Expected joblessness as a share of the labour force on the same horizons.
• Assumptions: Reported oil prices in US dollars, the exchange rate, the policy rate and pay growth, with no common baseline.

One shock round with 56 replies put headline inflation at 7.3%, 3.6% and 2.1% across three successive calendar years, up 1.3, 1.2 and 0.2 points. Longer term inflation edged up 0.1 to 2.2%, above 2%, on energy and food pass through. Growth forecasts fell to 2.8%, 1.5% and 1.8% on energy strain, tighter policy and weaker purchasing power. Unemployment forecasts fell to 6.7%, 6.7%, 6.6% and 6.4% longer term, a record low in survey history, while core read 3.6%, 2.0% and 2.3%. Headline, growth and labour market paths can move in opposite directions, and the longer term inflation number is the credibility signal.

How is ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters calculated?

1. Collection: Each respondent gives a point forecast plus probabilities across 0.5 point outcome bins. Bottom and top bins stay open ended, such as below 0% or above 3.5%.
2. Headline average: The published figure is the simple mean of point forecasts, with one vote per forecaster. Example: 1.9%, 2.0%, 2.0% and 2.1% average to 2.0%.
3. Aggregate distribution: For each bin, average all reported probabilities the same way. Example: bin odds of 20%, 10%, 10% and 0% average to 10%.
4. Uncertainty and risk: The width of the combined map gauges uncertainty from individual doubt plus spread forecasts. Skew shows whether risks tilt up or down.
5. No adjustments: No seasonal adjustment, threshold or normalisation applies, and requested values are annual rates and expectation levels.

Key point: SPF numbers are outside experts' views, never the central bank's own forecast, so never trade them as policy signals.