S&P Global Services PMI

What is the HCOB Eurozone Services PMI?

The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index measures the breadth of monthly change in eurozone services activity. S&P Global compiles it from questionnaires sent to private service providers in 5 countries, namely Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Ireland. Hamburg Commercial Bank, a private commercial bank based in Hamburg, sponsors the release and its chief economist provides commentary. The eurozone survey covers around 5000 private companies across manufacturing and services together, with panels stratified by sector and workforce size.

The headline is a diffusion index between 0 and 100 that shows how widespread growth is rather than euros earned. A reading above 50 signals expansion from the prior month, while below 50 signals contraction and near 50 signals little change. Central banks, including the European Central Bank, use the data for rate decisions, as surveys rank among the first published.

When is it released and what happens each release?

Responses are collected in the second half of each month and show direction of change against the prior month. Each reference month brings an early flash estimate based on about 85% to 90% of responses. Final data follow in the first week of the next month.

Manufacturing finals appear first, then services and composite finals appear together a few days after under a morning embargo. Each release includes a country ranking plus new business, backlogs, employment, costs, charges, expectations and economist comment alongside methodology notes. Survey answers are not revised after publication, although seasonal factors can be revised from time to time.

What moves the HCOB Eurozone Services PMI?

The headline has no weighted parts, so track these surveyed variables instead.

• Business Activity: the headline gauge of activity change against the prior month.
• New Business: incoming new work, including new export orders.
• Outstanding Business: backlogs of uncompleted work that can sustain activity when orders fall.
• Employment: change in services headcounts.
• Input Costs and Output Prices: services cost pressures and the fees firms charge.
• Business Expectations: sentiment on activity over the next 12 months.

Activity can rise even when new orders fall because firms work through backlogs, so breadth can mask soft demand. Countries can also split, with some contracting while others expand, and services can stay above 50 while the composite stays below 50. Flash estimates can differ from finals when additional responses arrive, so small revisions are normal.

How is the HCOB Eurozone Services PMI calculated?

• Diffusion: each country index equals the share reporting higher plus half the share reporting unchanged, on a scale between 0 and 100.
• Seasonal adjustment: each country index is adjusted to remove normal seasonal swings before aggregation.
• Eurozone aggregation: country indices are combined using weights for national services value added from Eurostat.
• Headline question: the services figure comes from one question asking whether activity is higher, the same or lower than one month ago.
• Composite context: the composite output index is a weighted average of manufacturing output and services activity using the same weights.

The Services PMI is not a basket of 5 parts like Manufacturing. Manufacturing blends 5 parts with fixed weights, while services matches Manufacturing Output as a single activity gauge.