S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

What is HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI?

The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index, a monthly factory survey) is compiled by S&P Global and sponsored by Hamburg Commercial Bank. It covers about 3000 manufacturing firms in 8 countries representing 89% of eurozone factory activity, within surveys covering over 40 countries. The 8 countries are Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Ireland and Greece. It measures month-on-month direction of change, not output volumes, services or a full census.

Central banks including the European Central Bank plus markets use it as an early monthly economic signal.

When is it released and what happens each release?

Responses are collected in the second half of each month and track change versus the previous month. A flash estimate from about 85% to 90% of responses appears roughly a week before the final. The final arrives on the first working day after the month at 10:00 CET under embargo.

It covers output, the country ranking, orders, jobs, backlogs, stocks, delivery times, prices and confidence plus economist commentary. Underlying answers are not revised after publication, but seasonal factors may shift adjusted values. The flash to final gap stands at 0.0, and 0.2 in absolute terms.

What moves HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI?

5 survey parts drive the headline, with fixed weights.

• New Orders, 30%: change in incoming order books, including export demand.
• Output, 25%: change in factory production volumes, also released as the Output Index.
• Employment, 20%: change in manufacturing staffing levels.
• Suppliers' Delivery Times, 15%: change in delivery speed, inverted so delays raise the index.
• Stocks of Purchases, 10%: change in input stocks held before production.

Above 50 means growth versus the prior month, while below 50 means shrinkage, and distance from 50 shows the pace. When the headline and Output sit below 50 together, the sector is shrinking and producing less. The country ranking shows how broad the strength or weakness sits behind the headline.

How is HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI calculated?

1. Diffusion index: for each topic and country, score I = H + 0.5 x U, where H means higher and U means unchanged. Scores run from 0 to 100.
2. Seasonal adjustment: adjust each index for seasonal patterns.
3. Country weighting: combine country scores using manufacturing annual value added from Eurostat.
4. Headline average: average the 5 adjusted scores with fixed weights, flipping delivery times so delays raise it.

For example, 0.30 x 44.0 plus 0.25 x 43.0 plus 0.20 x 47.0 plus 0.15 x 52.0 plus 0.10 x 46.0 equals 45.8, below 50.

Key point: a rise below 50 still means contraction, only slower. The headline is not output alone: Output carries only 25% weight, so jobs, stocks and delivery times can pull it away from production.