HCOB Manufacturing PMI

What is HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI?

The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) tracks factory conditions across the eurozone. It is a diffusion survey in which managers report better, same or worse versus the previous month. S&P Global compiles it from panels of about 3000 manufacturers in 8 countries covering about 89% of eurozone manufacturing. The 8 are Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Ireland and Greece, and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) sponsors the name.

Panels are stratified by sector and company workforce size, based on contributions to GDP. It continues the former Markit and IHS Markit manufacturing series. It covers manufacturing only, not services or the composite index, and not the United States ISM survey.

When is it released and what happens each release?

Responses are collected in the second half of each month and record change versus the previous month. The flash estimate appears around 23 to 24 of the reference month, built from 85% to 90% of responses. The final manufacturing release follows on the first working day after the month ends, under a 10:00 Central European embargo.

Each release adds the Output Index, country ranks, orders, jobs, purchasing, delivery times, costs and selling prices, plus HCOB economist comment and methods. Survey answers are never revised after publication. Seasonal factors can be revised from time to time, and markets read each reading against 50.0 and its direction.

What moves HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI?

5 weighted survey parts drive the headline, while prices, backlogs and confidence only add context.

• New Orders, 30%: demand inflow, including new export orders within and beyond the eurozone.
• Output, 25%: factory production during the month, also released alone as the Output Index.
• Employment, 20%: factory staffing levels, whether manufacturers added or cut jobs.
• Suppliers' Delivery Times, 15%: vendor speed, inverted so faster deliveries lower the headline.
• Stocks of Purchases, 10%: input inventories held by manufacturers.

A rise that stays below 50.0 is not growth, only slower contraction. Faster deliveries also push the headline down by design, so improving supply chains can lower the index. Markets read the level and the direction together, not one alone.

How is HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI calculated?

1. Diffusion: Each variable index equals the share reporting higher plus half the share unchanged, on a 0 to 100 scale. If 20% report higher and 50% report no change, the index is 45.0.
2. Seasonal adjustment: Country indices are then seasonally adjusted for normal calendar effects.
3. Eurozone aggregation: Country indices are combined using national manufacturing value added from Eurostat.
4. Headline mix: It blends New Orders times 0.30, Output times 0.25, Employment times 0.20, inverted Delivery Times times 0.15 and Stocks times 0.10. With sub-indices at 44.0, 45.0, 46.0, 48.0 and 43.0, that mix gives 45.2.
5. Reading: A print above 50.0 means broad increase versus the previous month, while below 50.0 means broad decrease.