Industrial Production YoY

Industrial Production YoY is the annual change in Production in industry (volume), Eurostat's monthly index of industry output volume with price effects removed. Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, publishes it under Short-Term Business Statistics as a Principal European Economic Indicator for economic and monetary policy. It covers kind-of-activity units in mining, manufacturing and energy supply, but excludes construction, water services, prices, sales values and absolute output levels. In theory it reflects value added, gross output minus bought inputs, not physical tons produced.

The reference period is one calendar month, and countries must send data 1 month and 10 days after it. Eurostat usually publishes about 40 to 45 days after it, on dates announced in advance in Luxembourg time, with index levels at 2021 as 100. Releases give euro area and EU headlines with group and country splits, monthly change on calendar- and seasonally-adjusted data and yearly change on calendar-adjusted data.

Eurostat publishes 48 such releases a year, one each month for four central indicators. Totals are revised monthly on new national data, errors are fixed at once and large method changes are announced in the releases.

Eurostat splits total industry into 5 Main Industrial Groupings, product groups between sections and divisions.

• Intermediate goods: raw materials and inputs used to make other goods.
• Capital goods: machinery and motor vehicles used in production.
• Durable consumer goods: appliances and furniture, the smallest grouping.
• Non-durable consumer goods: food, clothing and other everyday items.
• Energy: mining, electricity, gas and steam, excluding water and waste services.

The 15 April 2025 release gives first estimates for February 2025. Euro area output rose 1.1% on the month and 1.2% on the year, after +0.6% in January 2025; the EU rose 1.0% and 0.6%.

On the year, intermediates fell 2.7%, capital goods 1.8% and durables 2.3%, while energy rose 1.4% and non-durables jumped 9.7%, carrying the headline. Ireland rose 38.8%, Lithuania 9.1% and Luxembourg 6.6% on the year, while Germany fell 3.7%, Bulgaria 4.7% and Hungary 8.0%.

The lesson: a one-month yearly gain can hide broad weakness when a narrow spike offsets other declines.

1. Monthly approximation: exact monthly value added is missing, so offices estimate it from deflated turnover, output, labour input and energy use.
2. Laspeyres-type index: the index values current volumes at base-year structure and sets the base-year average to 100, with 2021 as 100.
3. Activity aggregation: lower indices combine by weight, so the higher index is the sum of each index times its weight, with weights adding to 1. For example, 102.0 times 0.6 plus 94.0 times 0.4 equals 98.8.
4. Calendar and seasonal adjustment: JDemetra+, Eurostat's software, removes calendar effects such as leap years and holidays. National offices adjust their series for seasons, and the euro area total averages national adjusted series when coverage tops 60% of weights.
5. Geographical aggregation: national indices combine with 2021 country weights, rescaled so 2021 equals 100. Missing national data are estimated, and no total appears below 60% coverage.
6. Rates: monthly change divides the calendar- and seasonally-adjusted index by the prior month, minus 1, times 100; yearly change does the same on calendar-adjusted data. For example, 99.2 over 98.0 minus 1 times 100 gives 1.2% after rounding.