Producer Price Index YoY

The (industrial) Producer Price Index, abbreviated PPI and also called output price index, measures price change from producers' view as sellers. Eurostat, the EU statistics office, publishes it monthly as Short-term business statistics, a key policy indicator, since January 2000. Total industry covers NACE Rev.2 Sections B to D plus division E36: mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. It covers establishments of all sizes through a representative sample of units and products; no single euro-area sample size is published.

Prices for a month refer to orders booked in that month. Eurostat issues Industrial producer prices at 11:00 CET/CEST, 1 month and 5 days after the reference month. Key data go to the ECB, the European Central Bank, under embargo the evening before release. The release carries month-on-month and year-on-year tables by Main Industrial Grouping and country, plus methods, revision, and database notes.

National data are revised when more information arrives, European aggregates once a month, and errors are fixed at once. Major method changes are announced in the releases. Markets read growth rates, not levels: an early inflation signal for policy, output measurement, and contracts. PPI direction only partly foreshadows consumer prices.

Headline splits domestic sales into six groupings using 2021 turnover weights.

• Energy: electricity, gas and related output; the most volatile group and crisis amplifier.
• Intermediate goods: inputs used by other industries to make further products.
• Capital goods: machinery and equipment used for production.
• Durable consumer goods: long-lived household goods.
• Non-durable consumer goods: short-lived household goods such as food-type products.
• Total industry excluding energy: analytical aggregate showing pressure without energy.

The 2022 peak came in the August data, released October 4, 2022, at +43.3% yearly and +5.0% monthly. Energy jumped +116.8% yearly and +11.8% monthly, while intermediate goods rose +19.9%, non-durable goods +14.4%, durable goods +9.8% and capital goods +7.6%. Total industry excluding energy rose only +14.5% yearly and +0.3% monthly, so the record came almost fully from energy.

Routine revision later moved the yearly rate to +43.4% with monthly unchanged. Energy then fell 32.8% after the September 2022 data, released November 4, 2022, following a +147.6% surge.

1. Collect prices: Collect invoiced basic prices, excluding VAT and duties and adding subsidies, for the same product with rebates and transport tracked.
2. Aggregate nationally: Average product indices by turnover, renewing weights every 5 years on a 2021 base of 100.
3. Aggregate to euro area: Combine national indices by each country's turnover share, publishing a European total only when data cover at least 60% of weights.
4. Leave unadjusted: Apply no seasonal or calendar adjustment, because prices do not depend on working days and adjustment would destabilise the series.
5. Rates: Calculate monthly change as (It / It-1 minus 1) x 100 and yearly as (It / It-12 minus 1) x 100 on unadjusted data. Here I means the index with 2021 average at 100. A reading of 143.9 means prices stand 43.9% above the 2021 average.
6. Illustrative example: If energy is 130.0 in January and 135.2 in February versus 100.0 a year earlier, monthly is +4.0% and yearly is +35.2%. If 2 countries read 120.0 and 140.0 with 70% and 30% shares, the euro total is 126.0.