The announcement by a central bank regarding the short-term interest rate at which it lends to commercial banks. This is the primary tool of monetary policy used to control inflation and stabilize the national economy. Changes in interest rates influence borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, affecting overall spending and investment levels.
Determined by the central bank's governing board after reviewing comprehensive economic data, including inflation trends, GDP growth, and employment figures. The decision is based on the bank's mandate to maintain price stability and support economic growth.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | — | 4.00 | — |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 |
| Aug 6, 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 |
| May 7, 2026 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Sep 24, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Aug 7, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Jun 25, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| May 7, 2025 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.00 |
| Mar 26, 2025 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Sep 25, 2024 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 |
| Aug 1, 2024 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Jun 27, 2024 | 4.75 | 5.00 | -0.25 |
| May 2, 2024 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 0.00 |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 0.00 |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 6.25 | 6.50 | -0.25 |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 0.00 |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| Sep 27, 2023 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| Aug 3, 2023 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| Jun 21, 2023 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| May 3, 2023 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| Feb 2, 2023 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| Sep 29, 2022 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| Aug 4, 2022 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| Jun 22, 2022 | 7.00 | 6.75 | +0.25 |
| May 5, 2022 | 5.75 | 5.50 | +0.25 |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Feb 3, 2022 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 |
| Dec 22, 2021 | 3.75 | 3.50 | +0.25 |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2.75 | 2.00 | +0.75 |
The latest reading is within its usual range, less than one standard deviation from the mean.
