The Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. It combines ten different economic components, including manufacturing hours, jobless claims, and building permits, to provide a forward-looking view of the economy. A rising LEI suggests economic expansion, while a declining trend often precedes a recession. It is widely used by investors to anticipate shifts in the broader economic landscape several months in advance.
The index is calculated as a weighted average of 10 leading components, such as average weekly hours in manufacturing, consumer expectations, and the interest rate spread. Each component is adjusted for volatility to ensure a balanced representation of economic momentum.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2015 | 1.60 | — | — |
| Sep 22, 2015 | 1.00 | — | — |
| Aug 25, 2015 | 0.90 | — | — |
| May 23, 2014 | 0.90 | — | — |
| Dec 18, 2013 | 1.40 | — | — |
| Nov 20, 2013 | 0.60 | — | — |
| Oct 22, 2013 | 0.90 | — | — |
| Sep 17, 2013 | 0.70 | — | — |
| Mar 19, 2013 | 1.30 | — | — |
