Trade Balance

Trade Balance is the monthly Canadian international merchandise trade release from Statistics Canada. It comes from the Canadian International Merchandise Trade Program in the International Accounts and Trade Division. It is a census of customs records, not a sample, with customs record 2201 and Payments record 2202.

Imports from all countries use Canada Border Services Agency declarations sent electronically to StatCan. Exports to other countries use the same declarations. Exports to the United States use United States import records received through the Census Bureau under an agreement in place since January 1, 1990. Dollar values use the monthly Bank of Canada average.

Balance of Payments data cover resident to non-resident transactions, while customs cover physical movement. The headline is the seasonally adjusted Balance of Payments series in current dollars, covering goods only, excluding services, in-transit, temporary trade and monetary gold.

Statistics Canada publishes it each month in The Daily at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, about 35 days after the reference month. Dates follow a pre-established schedule with simultaneous United States release. Each reference month is a calendar month closing on the last calendar day by customs clearance date. Late documents are assigned to the transaction month and appear as revisions in the next statistical month.

Each release shows seasonally adjusted exports, imports and balance with product and partner detail. Tables cover 10 principal partners, product sections, and combined goods and services, with price and volume indexes. Late imports and energy exports are estimated then replaced, a major revision source. Readers watch whether surplus or deficit widened or narrowed.

Goods exports minus goods imports move with product shipments and with United States versus other-country demand. Partners are the top 27 ranked on 2012 trade plus three residual groups.

• Energy products: crude oil and bitumen, natural gas, refined products and coal, the most volatile driver and revision source.
• Farm and forestry: farm, fishing and intermediate food plus forestry and packaging, moving with harvests and prices.
• Metals: metal ores and concentrates plus processed metals including unwrought gold, silver and platinum group metals.
• Chemicals and consumer goods: basic chemicals, plastic and rubber plus finished household goods for broad demand.
• Machinery and electronics: industrial machinery and parts plus electronic and electrical equipment including computers.
• Vehicles and aircraft: motor vehicles and parts including passenger cars, plus aircraft and other transportation equipment.

For March 2024, released May 2, 2024, the balance flipped from a February surplus of $476M to a March deficit of $2.3B. Exports fell 5.3 percent to $62.6B and imports fell 1.2 percent to $64.8B. Unwrought gold, silver and platinum group metals fell 32.5 percent, down $1.6B, after a 69.9 percent jump in February. Excluding unwrought gold, exports were up 2.2 percent in February and down 3.2 percent in March.

Energy exports fell 4.9 percent, motor vehicles and parts fell 6.3 percent, and farm, fishing and intermediate food fell 9.2 percent. The United States surplus narrowed from $8.5B to $6.5B, while the non-United States deficit widened from $8.0B to $8.8B. February imports were revised from $65.2B to $65.6B and exports from $66.6B to $66.1B.

1. Customs values: Record imports Free on Board at direct shipment, excluding freight, insurance, duties and taxes.
2. Export values: Record exports at port of exit, including domestic freight, net of discounts.
3. Attribute partners: Assign imports by country of export and exports by last known destination.
4. Adjust to Balance of Payments basis: Apply coverage, timing, inland freight and residency adjustments, with undercoverage estimated since 1986.
5. Seasonally adjust: Apply X-11-ARIMA, then sum to headline totals in current dollars.
6. Compute balance: Subtract imports from exports, so B equals X minus M; positive is surplus and negative is deficit.
7. Example: March 2024 exports of $62.6B minus imports of $64.8B give a $2.3B deficit, while revised February $66.1B minus $65.6B give a $476M surplus.