What is the Market Participants Survey?
The Market Participants Survey (MPS) is a quarterly Bank of Canada survey tied to 4 Monetary Policy Report (MPR) decision rounds each year. It polls about 30 senior economists and strategists at banks, dealers, pension funds, insurers, asset managers and research firms. It asks about Canada and the United States, but publishes only quantitative Canada results; interviews stay confidential. It is not a Bank forecast, a Governing Council view, trading implied expectations, or household or business sentiment.
When is it released and what happens each release?
Questionnaires go out about 5 weeks before each Monetary Policy Report release, with replies collected over 8 to 12 days. Staff then interview roughly 2 in 3 respondents for 45 to 60 minutes, rotated quarterly, before the blackout quiet period. Results appear about 2 weeks after each January, April, July and October decision, at 10:30 ET, with no fixed calendar date promised. Each quarter brings a page with no press release, tables, charts and CSV, JSON and XML downloads; questionnaire updates yearly and vintages stay frozen.
What moves the Market Participants Survey?
The survey assigns no weights; each question stands alone across 3 sections.
- Growth forecasts: year over year change in real GDP, or total inflation-adjusted output, plus probability shares across growth ranges summing to 100%.
- Inflation forecasts: headline CPI, or consumer price change, for year ends and 5 years ahead, plus probability shares across inflation ranges summing to 100%.
- Policy rate expectations: expected policy path across meetings then quarters, with peak level and long-term neutral rate. Balance of risks skews toward higher, lower or balanced paths.
- Risks, output gap and recession odds: up to 3 upside and downside growth risks, plus the gap between actual and potential output. Recession means 2 straight quarters of negative growth, with odds over 0 to 6, 6 to 12, 12 to 18 and 18 to 24 months.
- Yields, currency and oil: year-end 2, 5, 10 and 30 year Canadian bond yields, plus the exchange rate (USD per CAD) and WTI oil. Estimates are conditional on each respondent's scenario.
The Third Quarter 2023 vintage, published November 6, 2023 with 28 replies, saw the median rate at 5.00% through March 2024. It expected a first cut to 4.75% in April, then 4.00% by end 2024. The Fourth Quarter 2023 vintage, published February 5, 2024 with 27 replies, kept the April cut to 4.75% and 4.00% in October and December.
That vintage saw 0.8% growth and 2.3% inflation at end 2024. The Bank held at 5.00% on April 10, 2024 and cut to 4.75% on June 5, 2024, 2 months later than expected. Medians are expectations gathered weeks before decisions, not policy signals.
How is the Market Participants Survey calculated?
- Questionnaire: All respondents complete a standard form with point estimates, or single-value forecasts, probability shares summing to 100%, multiple choice risks and open text.
- Interviews: Staff then interview roughly 2 in 3 respondents for 45 to 60 minutes, rotated quarterly; notes stay confidential and only guide analysis.
- Medians and percentiles: Point forecasts show the median, or middle sorted value, averaged if n is even. They also show 25th and 75th percentiles, or quarter cutoffs, with n. For 4.50, 4.75, 4.75, 5.00 and 5.00, the median is 4.75.
- Averages and shares: Distribution bins show mean probability per range; risk choices show 100 times count divided by n. If 5 replies give 30, 35, 40, 45 and 47 to 1 range, mean is 39.4%.
- No weighting or seasonal adjustment: Each respondent counts as 1 observation with no extra weights. Vintages are not seasonally adjusted and each is a dated snapshot that stays frozen.
Key point: Median paths are staff-collected expectations, not Bank forecasts, Council signals or employer views.
