Trade Balance

Trade Balance is the market name for International Trade in Goods, Australia (catalogue 5368.0) from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS, the national statistics office). It reports the balance on goods, meaning goods credits (exports, positive entries) minus goods debits (imports, negative entries). Coverage is Australia's economic territory on a balance of payments basis (BoP, ownership based recording) under BPM6 (the global manual for external accounts).

Quarterly detail sits in publication 5302.0, and key series run back to 1971 and 1988. It uses full customs declarations, with no sample, and excludes monthly services and the current account (the wider external balance).

Releases arrive monthly in the first week after the next calendar month, about 4 to 6 weeks after month end, at 1130 Sydney time. Each release publishes goods tables in original (unadjusted), seasonally adjusted (season free) and trend (smoothed) terms, plus merchandise (customs recorded) detail in original terms only.

Merchandise data is revised for the prior 6 months each month. In the July, October, January and April issues, original revisions stay limited so the series aligns with the quarterly publication. In August they can reach back 4 financial years, while adjusted and trend lines can revise at any time. The publisher states no market rule, while a third party calendar reads above expected results as positive for the Australian dollar.

Moves come from current price values, with commodity credits against consumer, capital and intermediate debits.

• Rural goods: meat, cereals, wool and other rural exports within general merchandise credits.
• Non-rural goods: metal ores, coal, fuels, metals, machinery, transport gear and other manufactures within credits.
• Ports procurement and merchanting: goods procured in ports by carriers plus net exports under merchanting, both not seasonally adjusted.
• Non-monetary gold: gold trade outside monetary reserves, shown not seasonally adjusted on both legs.
• Consumption and capital goods debits: household goods plus machinery, computing, telecom and transport equipment imports, shown negative.
• Intermediate and other merchandise debits: industry inputs, fuels and parts used to make other goods, shown negative.

The June 2022 release was published 4 August 2022. It showed commodity price power, with a seasonally adjusted goods and services surplus of 17670, up 2654 on the month. Credits reached 61527, up 2978 or 5.1%, led by non-monetary gold and metal ores and minerals.

Debits reached 43857, up 324 or 0.7%, led by travel debits. Goods alone were credits 55612 less debits 35829, giving 19783, above the headline because services ran a deficit, before monthly services ended.

1. Merchandise source: Start from merchandise trade compiled from customs declarations to the Department of Home Affairs.
2. BoP conversion: Convert to a balance of payments basis with coverage, timing and valuation adjustments. Record each deal when ownership changes, not when shipped or recorded.
3. Price and timing detail: Adjust iron ore at AHECC (the export goods code) level and coal, coke and briquettes for final contract prices. Time large capital items to ownership transfer when it comes before border crossing.
4. Coverage additions: Add goods procured in ports by carriers and net exports under merchanting.
5. Sign rule: Show balance of payments credits as positive and debits as negative. Show merchandise tables without plus or minus signs.
6. Balance, percent and example: Add credits and negative debits to get exports minus imports, in millions at current prices. Publish it in original, adjusted and trend terms, using concurrent ARIMA (a seasonal model) factors and a 13 term Henderson (a smoothing average). Compute debit percent changes without regard to sign, with no rate when the balance flips between surplus and deficit. For example credits 50000 and debits minus 45000 give 5000, a surplus of 5000.