Federal Election

The Federal Election is Australia's constitutionally required vote, run by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) under the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918. The independent AEC has run it since 1984 as a full count of formal votes, not a sample. It is not an economic indicator, opinion poll or market signal.

Enrolment and voting are compulsory for citizens aged 18 and over. Each voter normally receives 2 papers: 1 House division paper and 1 Senate state or territory paper. Government goes to the party or coalition with a majority of the 151 House seats, 76 needed, not the highest national vote share.

Polling day is a Saturday from 8am to 6pm local time. Early voting starts 12 days before polling day, with postal voting, and elections occur about every 3 years with no fixed calendar. Writs set the timetable: rolls close at 8pm 7 days after their issue. Nominations close at 12 noon 10 to 27 days after writs and are declared 24 hours later.

Polling is a Saturday at least 33 days after the issue of writs. Tally Room figures on election night are indicative, with no statistical revisions. House seats turn final after a mandatory second count and full preference distribution in every division; Senate seats take some weeks. Single House vacancies between elections are filled by by-elections.

Results turn on 4 area counts deciding division and state winners.

• House count: full preferential tally in 151 divisions; it decides who forms government with 76 seats.
• Senate count: proportional tally by state or territory for 76 seats using a quota, surplus transfers and exclusions.
• Two-party-preferred (TPP): notional ALP versus Coalition split in every division, with a notional count where they are not the final 2.
• Formal, informal and turnout: valid, invalid and participation figures giving context for each division and state.

On Saturday 21 May 2022 Labor won 77 of 151 seats and formed government with a one-seat majority under Anthony Albanese. The win ended about 9 years of Coalition rule despite low first-preference votes for Labor, while the Coalition won 58 seats.

Denison in 2010 teaches the same lesson: formal votes were 64859 and the majority was 32430. Jackson lost despite 23215 votes, while Wilkie with 13788 won with 33217 votes or 51.21% against 31642 or 48.79% after distribution. Both cases show seats beat national share, and preferences overturn first-preference leads.

1. Formal first-preference count: count only formal papers by number-1 marks; 10001 formal votes need 5001 to win.
2. Absolute-majority test: if a candidate holds more than 50 percent of formal votes, that candidate is elected.
3. Exclusion and transfer: otherwise exclude the lowest candidate and move each paper to its next choice; repeat until someone exceeds 50 percent. For example, with 4600, 3900 and 1501 votes, exclude the last group. The second gains 1200 and the first gains 301 to reach 4901 and 5100, so the second wins.
4. Full distribution: repeat the transfer in every division even with a first-round majority, feeding the TPP statistic.
5. Quota: compute Q as papers divided by seats plus 1, dropping the remainder and adding 1. For example, 1000000 papers for 6 seats gives 142858.
6. Surplus transfer: transfer surpluses at transfer value TV, surplus divided by papers held, then exclude the lowest and repeat until vacancies fill. A 400000 surplus from 1000000 papers gives TV 0.4, so 900000 next-preference papers add 360000 votes.
7. Ties and exhausted votes: break ties by countback, then by lot; papers with no next choice are exhausted and set aside. If too few papers remain, the leader fills the last vacancy without a quota, and equal numbers elect all.
8. No weights: there is no seasonal adjustment or sampling weight; each formal paper counts once, with fractional transfers only splitting surpluses.