S&P Global Composite PMI

The Judo Bank Flash Australia Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global for Judo Bank, tracks monthly private-sector output in Australia. Its headline is the Composite Output Index, a GDP-weighted blend of manufacturing output and services activity. It signals direction of change only, not the level of output or official ABS GDP data.

It covers around 400 manufacturers and around 400 service providers. Panels are stratified by detailed sector and workforce size, based on contributions to GDP. Services cover consumer excluding retail, transport, information, communication, finance, insurance, real estate and business services. Survey data start in May 2016, and the first public release appeared in June 2017.

Responses are collected in the second half of each month and show change versus the previous month. The flash estimate comes at about 9 a.m. Sydney time, around one week before month end. It uses around 85% of replies, or around 80 to 90%, as an early signal. Final indices follow after the reference month ends.

A reading above 50 means growth versus the previous month, and below 50 means contraction. Each flash release brings key findings, charts and analysis of output, orders, jobs and prices. It also carries economist comment and the full survey method, and the average flash to final gap is 0.1 points. Final survey data are not revised after publication, but seasonal factors may revise adjusted series.

The headline follows its two inputs plus the orders, jobs and price signals behind them.

• Manufacturing Output Index: tracks monthly change in manufacturing production volumes.
• Services Business Activity Index: captures monthly change in services activity from one question on business volumes.

The flash release of 15 December 2023 put the Composite Output Index at 47.4, up from 46.2. That marked a third straight monthly fall, but softer than November, when output fell the most in 27 months. Services activity rose to 47.6 from 46.0, while manufacturing output fell to 46.0 from 47.2.

Manufacturing PMI stood at 47.8, up from 47.7 in November. Input price inflation fell to its lowest since August 2021, yet firms raised selling prices faster to cover costs. Employment still rose, driven only by services, and the Judo Bank economist called both readings below 50 a growth pause, not recession.

1. Survey replies: respondents report higher, unchanged or lower versus the previous month for each variable.

1. Diffusion index: each variable scores H + 0.5 × U on a 0 to 100 scale. H is % higher and U is % unchanged. For example, 30% higher and 45% unchanged gives 52.5.

1. Seasonal adjustment: each index is seasonally adjusted, with no method given in the release.

1. Composite: the Composite Output Index averages manufacturing output and services activity with official annual value-added shares, and services are more than 80% of output. For example, 47.0 for manufacturing and 52.5 for services at 15% and 85% weights gives about 51.7, or growth.

1. Flash estimate: the same steps run on around 85% of replies, or around 80 to 90%, for an early read on the final indices.