Retail Sales MoM

Retail Sales MoM, or month-on-month change, tracked turnover, meaning sellers' takings, in Retail Trade, Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australia's official statistics agency, ran it monthly from April 1961 through its Retail Business Survey. It covered employing retailers selling to households plus cafes, restaurants and takeaway food, but excluded most services, cars, fuel and non-employing and overseas sellers.

Monthly values were current-price. That means they included inflation and GST (Goods and Services Tax). The series ended with June 2025, replaced by the Monthly Household Spending Indicator, a bank-transaction gauge.

Collection covered the calendar month, with non-calendar reporters converted to calendar equivalents. Releases followed 4 to 5 weeks after month-end at 11:30am Canberra time. Each release broke turnover down by 6 groups, 15 subgroups and states in original, seasonally adjusted and trend form.

Quarter months added chain-volume and per-person detail, and releases also covered online sales. Adjusted estimates were re-estimated monthly, while originals were not revised.

Annual reviews brought larger revisions, with trend moving most in the latest six months. Markets read a rise as growth and a fall as shrinkage, using trend alongside the adjusted series.

Moves reflected spending shifts across 6 groups with no fixed weights, food largest and rest discretionary or eating out.

• Food retailing: everyday essentials from supermarkets, liquor and specialised food stores.
• Household goods retailing: furniture, electronics, hardware and garden goods for homes.
• Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing: discretionary apparel, shoes, jewellery and accessories.
• Department stores: broad general merchandise, class 4260, sensitive to sales events.
• Other retailing: books, sports, toys, pharmacy goods and other store and non-store sales.
• Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services: meals eaten out or taken away.

In December 2023 turnover fell 2.7% to $35,187.2m after a 1.6% rise in November 2023. Black Friday had pulled Christmas spending forward, yet turnover stood 0.8% above December 2022.

Food retailing rose 0.1% to $14,177.3m while household goods fell 8.5%, clothing fell 5.7% and department stores fell 8.1%. Other retailing and cafes each fell 1.1%, and every state and territory fell, led by Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory at 3.8%. The quarter still grew 0.3% in volume, showing a nominal monthly fall can hide real growth.

1. Collection: Collect turnover for the calendar month from about 700 large firms and about 2,700 smaller sampled firms, mostly by phone. Convert non-calendar reporters to calendar-month equivalents.
2. Estimation: Estimate total turnover by generalised regression, benchmarked to quarterly tax data, splitting large multi-state retailers by state.
3. Aggregation: Add turnover across firms to Australia, state and industry cells, including online, wholesale, repairs, commissions and GST.
4. Seasonal adjustment: Remove calendar effects like Christmas lift, day mix, Easter and Father's Day using history. Re-estimate monthly with temporary ARIMA projections for the ends, forcing cells to add to totals.
5. Trend: Smooth the adjusted series with a 13-term Henderson average, or 7-term for quarterly series, using special end weights.
6. MoM % change: Divide the change from the prior month by the prior month and multiply by 100, using seasonally adjusted current-price levels. For example, $36,164m then $35,187m gives 100 x (35,187 minus 36,164) / 36,164, about -2.7%.
7. Quarterly volumes: For quarter months, deflate to chain Laspeyres indexes on prior-year prices to show volume after removing price effects.