Currency
Stock Index
Central Bank
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from ONS / OBR 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | In Line |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | Beat | ||
| 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 142.9 | 142.5 | — | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| CPI MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 3.2 | 3 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | Beat | ||
| Employment Change | 83 | 147 | 200 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| -0.8 | 1.1 | -0.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -13 | -13 | 5 | Miss | |||
| 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| -11 | -6.4 | 11.2 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.1 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | In Line |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.3 | 0 | 0 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | In Line | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House Price Index YoY | 2 | 2.7 | 1.9 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| House Price Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| -2.3 | -2 | -2.4 | Beat | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -0.1 | -0.8 | -0.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 44.7 | 38.4 | 40 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.1 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| Rightmove House Price Index MoM | -2 | -1 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | -0.5 | 0.7 | -0.5 | In Line | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Retail Sales YoY | 1.6 | 3.8 | 2.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| -14 | -17 | -18 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 7 | 5 | — | ||||
| Consumer Credit | 2.006 | 1.865 | 1.8 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 2.3 | 5 | 3.3 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -0.9 | 0.9 | -0.5 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | -5.537 | -3.464 | -3.6 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Trade Balance | -8.29 | -8.8 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| -22.1 | -27.2 | -21.5 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| -23.01 | -21.08 | -20.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -10.45 | -9.58 | -9.3 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Balance of Trade Non-EU | -10.45 | -9.58 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 51.7 | 51.9 | 51.5 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Services PMI | 52.8 | 52.1 | 51.8 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | |
| Composite PMI | 52.5 | 52.2 | 51.6 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | |
| -0.2 | 1 | 0.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -0.2 | -0.7 | 0.1 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 0.5 | 2 | 1.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.2 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -25 | -45 | -40 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 5.155 | 5.04 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 4.613 | 4.284 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 5.52 | 5.29 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 15-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 4.85 | 4.917 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 10-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 1.386 | 1.268 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 4.062 | 3.834 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 20-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 5.155 | 5.232 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 4.517 | 4.155 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Lending | 4.29 | 7.68 | 4.6 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| M3 Money Supply | 3299 | 3308.3 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| -0.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 56.05 | 58.22 | 59.4 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 6.3 | 9.5 | 9.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| -10.6 | -1.2 | 1 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -48 | -26 | -24 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -1.8 | -12.8 | 0 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| BRC Shop Price Index YoY | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| PPI Output MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| PPI Input MoM | -1.7 | -1.9 | 0 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| PPI Input YoY | 4.9 | 7.4 | 6.6 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| PPI Core Output YoY | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Retail Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 3.3 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| PPI Core Output MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| PPI Output YoY | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.2 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | Beat |
| Consumer Inflation Expectations | 2.8 | 2.2 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| BRC Shop Price Index MoM | -0.8 | -0.3 | — |
| Labour Costs QoQ | 0.4 | 0.7 | — |
| Claimant Count Rate | 3.9 | 4 | 3.9 | In Line | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Rightmove House Price Index YoY | -1 | -0.4 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Construction Orders YoY | -18.1 | -11.9 | 11.8 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| RICS House Price Balance | -30 | -32 | -31 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Halifax House Price Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Halifax House Price Index YoY | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI | 48.8 | 46.8 | 47.3 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Hometrack Housing Prices | 0.1 | -0.1 | — |
| CBI Business Optimism Index | -36 | -65 | -40 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI | 53.3 | 52.9 | 52.9 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI | 47.1 | 47 | 47.5 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI | 53.4 | 50.9 | 52.7 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI | 55.5 | 58 | 56.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Markit/CIPS Composite PMI | 59.7 | 59.9 | 57.8 | Beat | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI | 60.1 | 56.3 | 59 | Beat |
| 4-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 4.263 | 4.294 | — | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| 40-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 5.076 | 4.557 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 20-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 1.732 | 1.328 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 5-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 1.044 | 1.053 | — |
| 2-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 3.559 | — | — | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| 15-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 1.053 | 1.051 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 50-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 0.994 | -0.388 | — |
| 28-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 1.333 | 1.314 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 16-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 1.265 | 0.986 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 30-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 0.835 | 1.551 | — |
| Core RPI YoY | 3.1 | 2.9 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Core RPI MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI | 47.1 | 46.2 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Business Investment YoY | 0.8 | -1.3 | -1 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Business Investment QoQ | 1.7 | 0.9 | -0.5 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| BBA Mortgage Rate | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | In Line |
| New Passenger Car Registrations | 156571 | 213166 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| New Car Sales YoY | 11.7 | 11.4 | 10 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| New Car Sales MoM | 32.7 | 7.6 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| MPC Vote Unchanged | 89 | 99 | 89 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| MPC Vote Hike | 19 | 9 | 19 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| MPC Vote Cut | 9 | 9 | 9 | In Line |
| CFTC GBP speculative net positions | -56.4 | -52.7 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Net Lending to Individuals MoM | 6.8 | 6 | 5.6 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks | -14.3 | 31.9 | -8.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| New Car Registrations YoY | 7.2 | 3.4 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Money Supply | 3207.7 | 3212.3 | — |
| New Car Registrations MoM | -1.5 | -3.2 | — |
| 30-Year Green Gilt Auction | 4.976 | 4.831 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 10-Year Green Gilt Auction | 4.473 | 3.731 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Quantitative Easing | 875 | 875 | 875 | In Line |
| UK Finance Mortgage Approvals | 46.815 | 44.058 | 42.5 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| BBA Mortgage Approvals | 36.115 | 39.007 | 39.7 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| Business Investment | -1.6 | -0.8 | -2.1 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| CB Leading Index | -0.3 | -0.3 | — |
| CB Leading Index MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | — |
| Public Sector Borrowing MoM | 4.9 | — | 9.1 | Miss |
| Asset Purchase Facility | 375 | 375 | 375 | In Line |
| Leading Economic Index | 0.4 | — | — |
| M4 Money Supply YoY | 0.5 | -0.8 | — |
| Index of Services (3M/3M) | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | In Line |
