Currency
Stock Index
Central Bank
EPI = 100 − |inflation| − unemployment − deficit/GDP + GDP growth. Source: IMF WP/13/214 (Khramov & Lee, 2013).
Deficit/GDP sourced from ONS / OBR 2024
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | In Line | |||
| 3 | 3 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 | In Line | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | In Line | ||
| 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | In Line | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 143.6 | 142.9 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| CPI YoY | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| CPI MoM | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.5 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 3.2 | 3 | — |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5 | Miss | ||
| Employment Change | 67 | 83 | 70 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | |
| 27.8 | -11.8 | 8.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.9 | In Line | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -26 | -19 | -4 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | In Line | |||
| -0.8 | 1.1 | -0.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate YoY | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | In Line | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House Price Index YoY | 0 | -0.4 | -0.2 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| House Price Index MoM | 0 | -0.3 | 0.2 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| -1.8 | -1.9 | -1.6 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| -0.2 | -0.5 | 0 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 46.1 | 44.3 | 45.2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| -32 | -28 | -30 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| -0.2 | 0.2 | 0 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.5 | -0.2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Retail Sales YoY | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| -13 | -14 | -16 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| Business Confidence | 7 | 5 | — | |||
| 1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Consumer Credit | 2.464 | 2.097 | 1.9 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | |
| 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.6 | -0.9 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Trade | -0.92 | -2.322 | -3.6 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |
| Trade Balance | -8.29 | -8.8 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| -19.9 | -21.1 | -24.7 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| -18.01 | -19.3 | -21.8 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| Balance of Trade Non-EU | -5.29 | -8.19 | -9.9 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| -10.45 | -9.58 | -9.3 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | 51.7 | 52 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | |
| Services PMI | 52.1 | 52.5 | 51.7 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| Composite PMI | 52 | 52.5 | 51.7 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |
| 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 0.8 | 0.3 | -0.1 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| 1.2 | 1 | -0.1 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | ||
| -9 | -25 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 4.945 | 4.843 | — | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 5.383 | 5.155 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 5.52 | 5.29 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase | ||
| 15-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 4.85 | 4.917 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 10-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 1.386 | 1.268 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 4.062 | 3.834 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 20-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 5.155 | 5.232 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 4.517 | 4.155 |
| Economic Indicators | History | Actual | Previous | Forecast | Surprise | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI | 45.3 | 48.3 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| BBA Mortgage Rate | 6.58 | 6.58 | 6.6 | Miss | ||
| 350536 | 94236 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase | |||
| 12.1 | 13.7 | 12 | Beat | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease | ||
| 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | Beat | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| 1.8 | 3 | 1.7 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase | ||
| Auto Production YoY | 6.1 | -10.6 | -8 | Beat | ||
| M3 Money Supply | 3306.5 | 3298.5 |
| Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Inflation Rate | 3.3 | 3.1 | — |
| BRC Shop Price Index YoY | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| PPI Core Output YoY | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.9 | Miss |
| PPI Core Output MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Retail Price Index MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | Miss |
| PPI Output MoM | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| PPI Input MoM | 0.3 | -0.8 | 0.4 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| PPI Output YoY | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Retail Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | Miss | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| PPI Input YoY | 6.1 | 5.8 | 5.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Consumer Inflation Expectations | 2.8 | 2.2 | — | Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| BRC Shop Price Index MoM | -0.8 | -0.3 | — |
| 5 |
| Beat |
| Labour Costs QoQ | 0.4 | 0.7 | — |
| Claimant Count Rate | 3.9 | 4 | 3.9 | In Line | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Miss |
| Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 1.3 |
| Miss |
| Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Rightmove House Price Index YoY | -0.8 | -1 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Rightmove House Price Index MoM | 0.7 | -2 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Construction Orders YoY | -18.1 | -11.9 | 11.8 | Miss | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| Halifax House Price Index MoM | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Halifax House Price Index YoY | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI | 48.8 | 46.8 | 47.3 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Hometrack Housing Prices | 0.1 | -0.1 | — |
| Beat |
| Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| -34 |
| Beat |
| Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| CBI Business Optimism Index | -36 | -65 | -40 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI | 53.3 | 52.9 | 52.9 | Beat | Rising5th Consecutive Increase |
| S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI | 47.1 | 47 | 47.5 | Miss | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI | 53.4 | 50.9 | 52.7 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Markit/CIPS Composite PMI | 59.7 | 59.9 | 57.8 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI | 55.5 | 58 | 56.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI | 60.1 | 56.3 | 59 | Beat |
| — |
| Rising4th Consecutive Increase |
| 4-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 4.263 | 4.294 | — | Falling4th Consecutive Decrease |
| 40-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 5.076 | 4.557 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 20-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 1.732 | 1.328 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 5-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 1.044 | 1.053 | — |
| 2-Year Treasury Gilt Auction | 3.559 | — | — | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| 15-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 1.053 | 1.051 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 50-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 0.994 | -0.388 | — |
| 28-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 1.333 | 1.314 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| 16-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 1.265 | 0.986 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 30-Year Index-Linked Treasury Gilt Auction | 0.835 | 1.551 | — |
| Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Net Lending to Individuals | 6.874 | 6.2 | 6.2 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Mortgage Approvals | 54.92 | 55.93 | 56.1 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| M4 Money Supply MoM | 0.4 | -0.3 | 0.1 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Mortgage Lending | 4.41 | 4.08 | 4.4 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| CBI Distributive Trades | -55 | -48 | -50 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| New Car Sales MoM | -39.8 | 32.7 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Public Sector Net Borrowing | -18.3 | -2 | -15.7 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Core RPI MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | Miss |
| Core RPI YoY | 3.3 | 3.1 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| Car Production YoY | -10.6 | -1.2 | 1 | Miss | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| MPC Vote Unchanged | 8 | 9 | 8 | In Line | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| MPC Vote Hike | 1 | 0 | 1 | In Line | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| MPC Vote Cut | 0 | 0 | 0 | In Line | Falling3rd Consecutive Decrease |
| CFTC GBP speculative net positions | -56.4 | -52.7 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| Net Lending to Individuals MoM | 6.8 | 6 | 5.6 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks | -14.3 | 31.9 | -8.5 | Miss | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| New Car Registrations YoY | 7.2 | 3.4 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Money Supply | 3207.7 | 3212.3 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| New Car Registrations MoM | -1.5 | -3.2 | — | Falling2nd Consecutive Decrease |
| 30-Year Green Gilt Auction | 4.976 | 4.831 | — | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| 10-Year Green Gilt Auction | 4.473 | 3.731 | — | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| Quantitative Easing | 875 | 875 | 875 | In Line |
| UK Finance Mortgage Approvals | 46.815 | 44.058 | 42.5 | Beat | Rising3rd Consecutive Increase |
| BBA Mortgage Approvals | 36.115 | 39.007 | 39.7 | Miss | Falling5th Consecutive Decrease |
| Business Investment | -1.6 | -0.8 | -2.1 | Beat | Rising2nd Consecutive Increase |
| CB Leading Index | -0.3 | -0.3 | — |
| CB Leading Index MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | — |
| Public Sector Borrowing MoM | 4.9 | — | 9.1 | Miss |
| Asset Purchase Facility | 375 | 375 | 375 | In Line |
| Leading Economic Index | 0.4 | — | — |
| M4 Money Supply YoY | 0.5 | -0.8 | — |
| Index of Services (3M/3M) | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.2 | In Line |
