محضر الفيدرالي: تثبيت الفائدة بنبرة تشددية لمواجهة ضغوط التضخم المستمرة

### Interest Rate Decisions and Monetary Policy Direction The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on the seventeenth of June 2026 revealed that the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted a clearly and explicitly hawkish tone, as monetary policymakers unanimously decided, by a vote of twelve members to none, to keep the target range for benchmark interest rates unchanged at levels between 3.5% and 3.75%. This strategic decision was accompanied by maintaining the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65% and the primary credit rate at 3.75%, with a firm emphasis on continuing to preserve ample reserves within the banking system to ensure liquidity stability and avoid any undesirable disruptions in financial markets. The minutes clearly showed that this decision carries significant and central importance amid the continued persistence of inflation rates above the central bank’s strategic target of 2%. Several meeting participants noted that current price pressures require full and sustained vigilance, as any language indicating a bias toward monetary easing was removed from the official statement, opening the door wide to keeping interest rates at elevated levels for longer than expected, or even resorting to additional monetary tightening if needed and if inflation rates remain resistant to the hoped-for decline. ### Inflation Drivers and the Broader Economic Landscape With regard to detailed inflation data, the minutes highlighted that the Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose to 3.8% during last April, with estimates indicating that it reached 4.1% in May, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, stabilized near 3.4%. These persistent inflationary pressures are attributed to a range of complex economic factors, most notably successive energy price shocks, the effects of new tariffs, in addition to the massive and unprecedented demand associated with the boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure investments, which is driving exceptional growth in technology sectors. On the broader economic front, the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that economic activity continues to expand at a strong and cohesive pace, supported primarily by robust consumer spending and massive investment flows into artificial intelligence sectors. Although the Fed pointed to the stability of the labor market, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%, markets are watching with extreme caution the sharp slowdown in recently added U.S. jobs, adding a new layer of complexity for policymakers in their delicate attempt to balance the dual risks of curbing inflation without pushing the economy into a deep recession. ### Market Reaction and the Implications of Geopolitical Tensions Financial markets are reacting with heightened sensitivity to these hawkish directions and complex economic data. In the context of monitoring key investment assets, the S&P 500 Index Fund (SPY) is trading at $745.4, reflecting investors’ pricing of economic resilience and corporate-sector strength despite the high interest-rate environment. At the same time, the Gold Fund (GLD) is steady at $374.45, as traders and investors turn to it as a traditional hedging instrument and safe haven against persistent inflation and potential economic volatility that may result from strict monetary policies. In foreign exchange markets and sovereign yields, the euro against the U.S. dollar pair (EURUSD) is recording $1.143 according to the latest available market trading. As for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and ten-year U.S. Treasury yields (US10Y), their current levels are being closely monitored by traders and analysts to assess the path of liquidity and future interest-rate expectations, as these indicators represent a true compass for global capital-flow trends amid ongoing changes in the policies of major central banks. Markets and traders are now turning their attention to the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, scheduled to be held on the twenty-eighth and twenty-ninth of July 2026. During the coming phase, the Committee’s efforts will focus on monitoring a set of sensitive variables, including upcoming employment and inflation data, alongside the serious repercussions of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which has driven oil prices sharply higher, potentially further fueling energy shocks and increasing the complexity of the Fed’s historic task of reining in inflation and restoring stability to markets.