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Weekly Brief: De-escalation Weighs on Oil as Gold Speculators Cut Bullish Bets

De-escalation pricing dominated oil markets during the week despite transportation risks, while gold’s post-election recovery was met with a decline in net long positions. Brent headed for a weekly decline of 16%, while West Texas crude stood at 90.36 with a session change of -0.18%; these are measurements for different periods and different crude grades. The pressure coincided with damage to tankers in Hormuz and peace talks remaining far from a breakthrough, suggesting de-escalation expectations outweighed transportation risks in pricing. However, speculators raised net long positions to +80289 contracts, with a weekly change of +5946. This divergence between prices and positioning makes a continued decline a test of buyers’ conviction, while shipping disruptions remain a factor that could restore a risk premium. Gold rose during the week after the midterm elections, but the latest session reading of 4074.80 with a change of -0.94% does not represent the metal’s weekly performance. Speculator positions show net longs remained positive at +179548 contracts, with a weekly change of -6903, reflecting a reduction in bullish exposure. Goldman also lowered its end-2027 forecast to 4,800 dollars per ounce; this is a forward estimate, not a guaranteed target. The takeaway is that the political recovery did not settle the strength of the trend: continued net longs provide support, while their reduction calls for caution about assuming the rally will continue.