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At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity has been halted following a series of disruptive events, according to Reuters calculations based on current market data. The significant reduction in capacity stems from Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure, disruptions to major pipelines, and the seizure of several tankers. This massive supply shock comes at a critical time, potentially exacerbating the existing global energy crisis and tightening global supply. Market analysts suggest that this development effectively counteracts recent efforts by the United States to stabilize energy markets through eased sanctions. The loss of nearly half of Russia's export infrastructure is expected to exert significant upward pressure on Brent Crude and WTI prices. Meanwhile, the Russian Ruble (RUB) may face increased volatility as export revenues are threatened by these logistical bottlenecks.
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