Beige Book

أظهر تقرير الكتاب البيج نمواً اقتصادياً يتراوح بين الطفيف والمعتدل في سبع مناطق فدرالية، بينما شهدت خمس مناطق أخرى استقراراً أو تراجعاً في النشاط، مما يعكس حالة من التباين الإقليمي. وبينما سجل قطاع التصنيع تحسناً ملحوظاً مدفوعاً بطلبيات مراكز البيانات والبنية التحتية للطاقة، واجه الإنفاق الاستهلاكي ضغوطاً متزايدة بسبب حساسية الأسعار المرتفعة وتراجع القوة الشرائية للأسر ذات الدخل المنخفض، وهو ما أدى لتباطؤ مبيعات السيارات والتجزئة. على صعيد سوق العمل والأسعار، استقرت مستويات التوظيف مع توجه الشركات نحو الأتمتة والذكاء الاصطناعي لتعزيز الإنتاجية بدلاً من التوظيف الجديد لمواجهة ارتفاع التكاليف. واستمرت الأسعار في الارتفاع بوتيرة معتدلة، حيث ساهمت التعريفات الجمركية وارتفاع تكاليف التأمين والطاقة في زيادة أعباء مدخلات الإنتاج، مما يضع ضغوطاً مستمرة على هوامش الربح ويجعل الشركات أكثر حذراً في توقعاتها المستقبلية رغم التفاؤل العام بنمو طفيف في الأشهر المقبلة.

Overall Economic Activity Overall economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in seven of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, while the number of Districts reporting flat or declining activity increased from four in the prior period to five in the current period. Although consumer spending increased slightly on balance, two Districts reported ongoing declines, and many noted that sales were dampened by economic uncertainty, increased price sensitivity, and lower-income consumers pulling back on spending. Districts impacted by winter storms said that retail traffic generally slowed, and one District said immigration enforcement activity negatively affected customer demand in urban areas. Auto sales were mostly down for Districts that reported on them, with many citing continuing affordability issues. Manufacturing activity improved overall since the previous reporting period, with eight Districts reporting varying degrees of growth and two reporting declines. Manufacturing contacts in many Districts reported increases in new orders, and several cited boosts in demand from data centers and, relatedly, energy infrastructure. Transportation activity was mixed across Districts that reported on it, with three reporting contractions and two reporting modest growth. Overall, financial services activity was reported as stable to up, with commercial lending being the primary area of strength. For most Districts that reported on residential real estate and construction, sales and activity decreased slightly, with low inventories and affordability remaining key issues. Nonresidential construction activity was mixed across reporting Districts but increased slightly on net. Among reporting Districts, agricultural conditions were mostly flat, and energy activity grew modestly on balance. Overall, economic expectations were optimistic, with most Districts expecting slight to moderate growth in the coming months. Labor Markets Employment levels were generally stable in recent weeks as seven of the twelve Districts reported no change in hiring. Contacts in several Districts cited rising nonlabor input costs, softer demand, or uncertainty about overall economic conditions as reasons for flat or lower employment levels. Firms in some Districts and in various sectors looked to AI or other forms of automation to gain efficiencies, with most emphasizing the goal of productivity enhancement rather than worker replacement. Wages rose at a modest or moderate pace in most Districts as firms competed for talent in select areas, including the skilled trades. Several Districts continued to report upward pressure on total compensation due to rising health insurance premiums. Prices Prices increased moderately in recent weeks, with eight Districts reporting moderate price growth and four seeing slight or modest increases. Many Districts reported that costs rose across several nonlabor inputs, including insurance, utilities and energy, and metals and other raw materials. Nine Districts mentioned that tariffs contributed to increased costs. Some firms continued to pass tariff-related cost increases through to their customers, and others began to do so after having absorbed previous increases. Still, most Districts received reports of some firms holding selling prices stable despite higher costs because their customers were increasingly price sensitive. On balance, firms expected prices to rise at a somewhat slower pace in the near term.