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MacroéconomieMoyen•21 March 2026•

1 min de lecture

Fed Rate Cut Odds Vanish as Stagflation Fears Spark Rate Hike Debates

Faits marquants

1The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut has hit zero according to market expectations.

2Traders are now debating whether the Federal Reserve's next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut.

3Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a hedge against stagflation and long-term inflation under these economic conditions.

Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have plummeted to zero, marking a dramatic shift in monetary policy sentiment. Persistent inflation data has forced traders to abandon hopes for easing, with some now debating if the next move could actually be a rate hike. This hawkish pivot comes amid growing concerns over stagflation, a scenario characterized by stagnant growth and high inflation. While traditional risk assets like the SPY face pressure from higher-for-longer rates, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has found renewed support. Interestingly, Bitcoin is increasingly being positioned as a strategic hedge against long-term inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty. The decoupling of rate expectations highlights a critical turning point for global financial markets and central bank credibility.

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