Conférence de presse - July 30, 2025

Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has been running somewhat above our 2 percent longer-run objective. In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged. We believe that the current stance of monetary policy leaves us well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments. I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments. Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has moderated. GDP rose at a 1.2 percent pace in the first half of this year, down from 2.5 percent last year. Although the increase in the second quarter was stronger at 3 percent, focusing on the first half of the year helps smooth through the volatility in the quarterly figures related to the unusual swings in net exports. The moderation in growth largely reflects a slowdown in consumer spending. In contrast, business investment in equipment and intangibles picked up from last year’s pace. Activity in the housing sector remains weak. In the labor market, conditions have remained solid. Payroll job gains averaged 150,000 per month over the past three months. The unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, remains low and has stayed in a narrow range over the past year. Wage growth has continued to moderate while still outpacing inflation. Overall, a wide set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance and consistent with maximum employment.

July 30, 2025 Chair Powell’s Press Conference FINAL Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.5 percent over the 12 months ending in June and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.7 percent. These readings are little changed from the beginning of the year, although the underlying composition of price changes has shifted: Services inflation has continued to ease, while increased tariffs are pushing up prices in some categories of goods. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up, on balance, over the course of this year on news about tariffs, as reflected in both market-based and survey-based measures. Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal. Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today’s meeting, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4¼ to 4½ percent and to continue reducing the size of our balance sheet. We will continue to determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. Changes to government policies continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain. Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen. A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation could be short lived—reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed.

July 30, 2025 Chair Powell’s Press Conference FINAL Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem. For the time being, we are well positioned to learn more about the likely course of the economy and the evolving balance of risks before adjusting our policy stance. We see our current policy stance as appropriate to guard against inflation risks. We are also attentive to risks on the employment side of our mandate. In coming months, we will receive a good amount of data that will help inform our assessment of the balance of risks and the appropriate setting of the federal funds rate. At this meeting, the Committee continued its discussions as part of our five-year review of our monetary policy framework. We focused on potential revisions to our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy and are on track to wrap up any modifications by late summer. The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy—maximum employment and price—stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainably to our 2 percent goal, and keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals. Thank you. I look forward to your questions.