Russian Oil and Gas Revenue Projected to Halve in February Amid Price Pressures

Russian state revenues from oil and gas are projected to decline significantly in February, reaching approximately 410 billion roubles ($5.35 billion). This forecast represents a nearly 50% drop compared to the same period in 2025, highlighting growing fiscal challenges for the Kremlin. Market analysts attribute this sharp contraction to a combination of a stronger Russian rouble and a general decline in global oil prices. The reduction in energy income is expected to weigh heavily on Russia's national budget, which relies extensively on hydrocarbon exports. Consequently, the outlook remains bearish for the USDRUB pair and major Russian energy equities like Rosneft and Gazprom. Global benchmarks Brent and WTI also face headwinds as lower price realizations impact the fiscal stability of major producing nations.